NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Bucs win but Cowboys cover; final prop grades

By Jim Barnes Las Vegas Review-Journal

3 years ago

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Ryan Succop (3) celebrates with Pat O'Connor (79) and Bradley Pinion (8) ... — Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Ryan Succop (3) celebrates with Pat O’Connor (79) and Bradley Pinion (8) after kicking what proved to be the game-winning field goal during the second half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Scott Audette)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) waves toward the fans as he leaves the field after an NFL preseason football game against the Houston Texans, Saturday, Aug. 28, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Scott Audette)

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) beats Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (23) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) on a 22-yard touchdown reception during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) spikes the football after his 2-yard touchdown reception against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Scott Audette)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates with wide receiver Antonio Brown (81) after Brown caught a touchdown pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper (19) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) scores against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) after a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

The NFL season is finally here.

The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys in the Thursday opener. The Buccaneers are 9-point favorites with a total of 52.

Refresh this blog throughout the game to track player props, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

9:11 p.m.: That’s it for tonight. We’ll be back Saturday for college football. Thanks for reading.

9:01 p.m.: Cowboys-Buccaneers prop grades:

Team totals: Bucs over 30½ (-125), made with two seconds left; Cowboys over 20½ (-120).

Alternate spreads: Cowboys +3½ (+195) cashes.

General props: First score will be a touchdown (-200); largest lead under 14½ points (+140; largest lead was 9); longest TD over 42½ yards (47); game won’t go to overtime (-3,000); won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-290); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-280); both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals (+110, wins on final field goal); will be a lead change in the fourth quarter (+350); a team won’t score three straight times (+190); won’t be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (+300); game will be tied again after 0-0 (+110).

Bucs props: Tom Brady over 25½ completions (32), over 37½ attempts (50), over 296½ passing yards (379), longest completion over 39½ yards (47), over 2½ TD passes (+120, 4), will throw an interception (+115); Mike Evans under 63½ receiving yards (24), won’t score a TD (-115); Chris Godwin over 59½ receiving yards (105), will score a TD (+150); Rob Gronkowski over 28½ receiving yards (90), will score a TD (+210); Antonio Brown over 54½ receiving yards (121).

Cowboys props: Dak Prescott over 25½ completions (42), over 39½ attempts (58), over 295½ passing yards (403), longest completion under 38½ yards (31), over 1½ TD passes (-140, 3); Ezekiel Elliott under 51½ rushing yards (33), won’t score a TD (-120); CeeDee Lamb over 63½ receiving yards (104); Amari Cooper over 5½ receptions (+110, 13).

8:56 p.m.: FINAL: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29. The Cowboys cover as 9-point road underdogs, but the Bucs win outright at -450 ML on a field goal with two seconds left. The game goes over 52½.

8:53 p.m.: Ryan Succop makes a 36-yard field goal with two seconds left to give Tampa Bay a 31-29 lead. It appears the Bucs will survive.

8:42 p.m.: Zuerlein booms in a 48-yard field goal to give Dallas a 29-28 lead with 1:24 to play.

8:35 p.m.: Cowboys favored for the first time all night at -160 on the live line after Lamb runs to the Tampa Bay 34.

8:31 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Cowboys face third-and-11 at their 35.

8:24 p.m.: The Cowboys will get their shot. Godwin fumbles inside the 5, and the Cowboys recover. Dallas has the ball at its 10-yard line trailing 28-26 with 4:52 to go.

8:17 p.m.: The Bucs force a three-and-out and have the ball back with just over 10 minutes to play.

8:09 p.m.: The Cowboys force a punt and take over with 11:53 left in the fourth quarter, trailing Tampa Bay 28-26. The Bucs are -250 on the live line (Cowboys +200), spread -2½, total 67½.

8:02 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Buccaneers 28, Cowboys 26.

7:57 p.m.: Over bettors can put their feet up. Winners clinched at any number (53 highest).

7:56 p.m.: The Cowboys keep coming. Cooper catches a 21-yard TD pass, and the Cowboys cut the Buccaneers’ lead to 28-26 with 33 seconds left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -320 on the live line (Cowboys +250), spread -3½, total 70½.

7:53 p.m.: Prescott now over on all these props: 25½ completions (34), 39½ attempts (46) and 295½ passing yards (310).

7:46 p.m.: The Buccaneers make the Cowboys pay. Gronkowski catches an 11-yard TD pass, and the Bucs lead 28-19 with 6:23 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -900 on the live line (Cowboys +575), spread -8½, total 67½.

7:42 p.m.: A ball bounces off Lamb’s hands for an interception. Prescott was -130 to throw a pick.

7:39 p.m.: The Cowboys will have another chance to take the lead after forcing a punt with 8:44 left in the third quarter. The Buccaneers are -260 on the live line (Cowboys +210), spread -4½, total 61½.

7:31 p.m.: Dallas has to settle for a 21-yard field goal to cut the Tampa Bay lead to 21-19 with 9:15 left in the third quarter. The Bucs are -350 on the live line (Cowboys +270), spread -5½, total 62½.

7:27 p.m.: Amari Cooper has several catches on this drive and is now over his prop of 5½ receptions (+110) with eight for 91 yards so far.

7:20 p.m.: The second half is underway. Cowboys receive.

7:08 p.m.: Second-half line: Buccaneers -2½, total 27. The Bucs are -450 on the live line (Cowboys +340), spread -7½, total 64½.

7:05 p.m.: HALFTIME: Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 16. First-half winners: Cowboys +5½, over 26. Dallas bettors avoided a bad beat when the Bucs didn’t get in field goal range in the final seconds.

7:03 p.m.: Zuerlein misses a 60-yard field goal, and the Bucs will have one last shot with 15 seconds left.

6:52 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Cowboys have the ball at their 36.

6:50 p.m.: Brady already hits his TD pass prop of over 2½ (+120). Brown was +170 to score a TD.

6:48 p.m.: The Bucs answer in a flash. Brown catches a 47-yard TD pass, and the Buccaneers lead 21-16 with 2:38 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -400 on the live line (Cowboys +300), spread -6½, total 67½.

6:45 p.m.: Zuerlein makes his first kick of the night, a 35-yard field goal, and the Cowboys take a 16-14 lead with 3:16 left in the second quarter. The Buccaneers are -230 on the live line (Cowboys +185), spread -4½, total 61½.

6:44 p.m.: A ball bounces off a running back’s hands, and Dallas intercepts it. Tom Brady was +115 to throw an interception.

6:38 p.m.: Dallas forces a fumble and closes the gap. Amari Cooper catches a 5-yard TD pass, and the Cowboys cut the Buccaneers’ lead to 14-13 with 4:20 left in the second quarter (extra point misses). The Bucs are -380 on the live line (Cowboys +290), spread -6½, total 59½. Prescott already clinches his TD pass prop of over 1½ (-140).

6:30 p.m.: The Cowboys miss an opportunity. Greg Zuerlein misses a 31-yard field goal, and the Buccaneers still lead 14-7 with 6:36 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -800 on the live line (Cowboys +525), spread -10½, total 55½.

6:17 p.m.: Gronk. Rob Gronkowski catches a 2-yard TD pass, and the Buccaneers take a 14-7 lead with 9:48 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -600 on the live line (Cowboys +420), spread -9½, total 57½. Gronkowski was +210 to score a TD.

6:08 p.m.: The Buccaneers and Cowboys trade punts, and Tampa Bay has the ball back with the game tied at 7 with 12:41 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are -400 on the live line (Cowboys +300), spread -7½, total 55½.

6:01 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Buccaneers 7, Cowboys 7. First-quarter winners: Cowboys +3, over 10.

5:59 p.m.: Buccaneers receiver Antonio Brown is already over his receiving yards prop of 54½ with three catches for 71 yards.

5:57 p.m.: The game will be tied again after 0-0 cashes at +110.

5:56 p.m.: Dallas strikes back. CeeDee Lamb catches a 22-yard TD pass, and the Cowboys tie the Buccaneers at 7 with 1:35 left in the first quarter. Tampa Bay is -300 on the live line (Cowboys +240), spread -6½, total 56½. Lamb was +170 to score a TD.

5:43 p.m.: Tampa Bay strikes first. Chris Godwin catches a 5-yard TD pass, and the Buccaneers lead 7-0 with 5:23 left in the first quarter. The Bucs are -700 on the live line (Cowboys +475), spread -12½, total 51½. Godwin was 10-1 to score the first TD and +150 to score a TD at any point.

5:35 p.m.: A good Cowboys drive stalls out, and Dallas ends up punting. No score with 9:32 left in the first quarter. The Buccaneers are -380 on the live line (Cowboys +290), spread -7½, total 47½.

5:28 p.m.: The Cowboys force a three-and-out, but they start buried on their 2-yard line.

5:25 p.m.: We are finally underway. The Bucs receive the kickoff.

5:22 p.m.: A lot of opening night pageantry. Still waiting for kickoff.

5:15 p.m.: The game is about to kick off:

— Cowboys (+375) at Buccaneers (-9, 52½, -450), 5:20 p.m.

5:05 p.m.: As kickoff approaches, the Buccaneers are still 9-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, total 52. The money line is Bucs -450/Cowboys +375.

Sportsbook directors have reported heavy action on the Buccaneers in all forms — straight bets, parlays and teasers.

4:55 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking tonight (lines from Westgate):

Team totals: Bucs 30½ (over -125), Cowboys 20½ (over -120).

Alternate spreads: Bucs -14½ (+190), Cowboys +3½ (+195).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -200/no +175); largest lead over/under 14½ points (over -160); longest TD over/under 42½ yards; will the game go to overtime (yes +1,200/no -3,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +245/no -290); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +240/no -280); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +350/no -420); will either team score three straight times (yes -220/no +190); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -360/no +300); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +110/no -130).

Bucs props: Tom Brady 25½ completions, 37½ attempts, 296½ passing yards, longest completion 39½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -140), will throw an interception (yes +115/no -135); Mike Evans 63½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -105/no -115); Chris Godwin 59½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +150/no -170); Rob Gronkowski 28½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +210/no -250); Antonio Brown 54½ receiving yards.

Cowboys props: Dak Prescott 25½ completions, 39½ attempts, 295½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -140); Ezekiel Elliott 51½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +100/no -120); CeeDee Lamb 63½ receiving yards; Amari Cooper 5½ receptions (under -130).

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.