NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Bengals score road upset, unders sweep

By
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) and Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixo ...

Welcome back to the NFL divisional playoffs.

In the first game, the Buffalo Bills, the No. 2 seed in the AFC, host the No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals. Then, the No. 2 San Francisco host the No. 5 Dallas Cowboys in an NFC matchup.

Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.

UPDATES

7 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 1-1 against the spread, and totals were 2-0 to the under for the second straight day. The Bengals defeated the Bills as +220 money-line underdogs. In the nightcap, the 49ers pulled away in the fourth quarter to cover as 3½-point favorites against the Cowboys.

Thanks for reading!

6:50 p.m.: Here are the betting results from today’s games:

— Bengals 27, Bills 10 (at Buffalo)

Full-game winners: Bengals +6, under 48½, Bengals +220 ML

First-half winners: Bengals +3½, over 23½ (Bengals 17-7)

Second-half winners: Bengals +7, under 26½ (Bengals 10-3)

Yards per play: Bengals 5.8, Bills 5.2 (Bengals lead 412-325 in total yards)

Turnovers: Bengals +1 (1-0)

Biggest lead: Bengals 27-10; Bills never led

— 49ers 19, Cowboys 12 (at Santa Clara, Calif.)

Full-game winners: 49ers -3½, under 46½, 49ers -180 ML

First-half winners: 49ers -2½, under 23 (49ers 9-6)

Second-half winners: 49ers -½, under 22½ (49ers 10-6)

Yards per play: Cowboys 4.7, 49ers 5.0 (49ers lead 312-282 in total yards)

Turnovers: 49ers +1 (2-1)

Biggest lead: Cowboys 6-3; 49ers 16-9, 19-12

6:44 p.m.: FINAL: 49ers 19, Cowboys 12. The 49ers’ kicking unit came through with four Robbie Gould field goals to cover as 3½-point favorites and advance to the NFC championship game for the third time in the past four years. The game stayed under the total of 46½.

6:36 p.m.: That mistake by Elijah Mitchell staying inbounds gives the Cowboys 45 seconds and 94 yards to go.

6:20 p.m.: Robbie Gould connects on his fourth field goal and puts the 49ers on top 19-12 with 3:04 remaining. The 49ers are -650 on the live line (Cowboys +450).

6:19 p.m.: That was a big drive for the 49ers, who chewed up close to eight minutes.

6:08 p.m.: What a hit for this bettor.

6:03 p.m.: He’s fixed, folks. Brett Maher hits from 43 yards and the Cowboys trail the 49ers 16-12 with 11:03 remaining in the fourth quarter. The 49ers are -350 on the live line (Cowboys +270), total 35½.

5:56 p.m.: Christian McCaffrey was -160 to score anytime TD.

5:55 p.m.: Christian McCaffrey walks into the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter. The 49ers lead the Cowboys 16-9 and are -450 on the live line (Cowboys +340), total 35½.

5:52 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Cowboys 9, 49ers 9. The 49ers are -350 on the live line (Cowboys +270), total 35½.

5:36 p.m.: CeeDee Lamb over 77½ receiving yards and 5½ receptions on his props.

5:35 p.m.: Dak Prescott longest completion over 37½ yards hits.

5:32 p.m.: It took eight games, but the Cowboys are making Brock Purdy look like a rookie QB. The 49ers are -150 on the live line (Cowboys +120), total 34½.

5:25 p.m.: He made it! Brett Maher connects from 25 yards. It’s Cowboys 9, 49ers 9 with 9:08 left in the third quarter. The 49ers are -180 on the live line (Cowboys +150), total 36½.

5:21 p.m.: The 49ers fumble the punt, and the Cowboys recover. Shades of Kyle Williams. The 49ers are -140 on the live line (Cowboys +110), total 39½.

5:16 p.m.: The second half is underway. The Cowboys receive.

5:15 p.m.: Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has been ruled out for the remainder of the game, according to the broadcast. He falls well short of 71½ rushing+receiving yards.

5:08 p.m.: Second-half line: 49ers -½, total 22½.

5:02 p.m.: HALFTIME: 49ers 9, Cowboys 6. First-half winners: 49ers -2½, under 23. The defenses dominated on both sides of the ball, including two forced turnovers by the 49ers. Robbie Gould’s 50-yard field goal as time expired gave the favorite the cover.

4:52 p.m.: Second interception thrown by Dak Prescott. The 49ers take over with 1:15 left in the half. The 49ers are -180 on the live line (Cowboys +150), total 35½.

4:45 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Cowboys 6, 49ers 6. This has been a meat grinder so far. The 49ers are -145 on the live line (Cowboys +115), total 40½.

4:37 p.m.: Robbie Gould is good for 47 yards. The 49ers and Cowboys are tied 6-6 with 3:43 left until halftime. The 49ers are -145 on the live line (Cowboys +115), total 39½.

4:26 p.m.: Tough beat.

4:25 p.m.: Dalton Schultz was 10-1 at Westgate SuperBook to score the game’s first TD.

4:24 p.m.: Maher was +375 at Westgate SuperBook and +290 at Circa Sports to miss an extra points.

4:23 p.m.: The extra point by Brett Maher was blocked. Oh, boy.

4:22 p.m.: Dak Prescott rolls right and finds Dalton Schultz for a 4-yard touchdown and the Cowboys lead 6-3 with 9:25 left in the second quarter. The Cowboys are -115 on the live line (49ers -115), total 40½.

4:13 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. 49ers 3, Cowboys 0. First-quarter winners: 49ers -½, under 7½.

4:07 p.m.: The Cowboys defense holds, and the 49ers settle for a 26-yard field goal from Robbie Gould with 2:12 left in the first quarter. The 49ers are -190 on the live line (Cowboys +155), total 40½.

4 p.m.: There’s the first big play, and it’s made by the 49ers defense. Dak Prescott was -170 to throw an interception. The 49ers take over at Dallas’ 21-yard line.

3:56 p.m.: Midway through the first quarter and the 49ers are -150 on the live line (Cowboys +120), total 41½.

3:48 p.m.: The teams trade punts to open.

3:40 p.m.: The Cowboys and 49ers are underway in Santa Clara, Calif. The 49ers get the ball first.

3:31 p.m.: “Mattress Mack” has $2 million on the Cowboys.

3:17 p.m.: Will Cowboys kicker Brett Maher miss an extra point? (Westgate SuperBook: yes +375/no -450; Circa: yes +290/no -350)

3:15 p.m.: This afternoon’s game:

— Cowboys (+165) at 49ers (-3½, 46½, -185), 3:30 p.m.

3:10 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking for during afternoon’s for the Cowboys-49ers game:

Team totals: Cowboys 21½ (under -130), 49ers 25½.

Alternate point spreads: Cowboys -3½ (+300), +10½ (-260); 49ers +3½ (-360), -10½ (+220).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); largest lead 14½ points (under -130); longest TD 40½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +190/no -220); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +120/no -140); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +310/no -370); will either team score three straight times (yes -190/no +170); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +110/no -130).

Cowboys props: Dak Prescott 22½ completions, 35½ attempts, 252½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 1½ TD passes, will throw an interception (yes -170/no +150); Ezekiel Elliott 34½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +190/no -220); Tony Pollard 71½ rushing+receiving yards; CeeDee Lamb 77½ receiving yards, 5½ receptions (over -140), will score a TD (yes +160/no -180); Michael Gallup 33½ receiving yards; Dalton Schultz 40½ receiving yards; Brett Maher 6½ kicking points.

49ers props: Brock Purdy 19½ completions (over -125), 30½ attempts, 239½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -130), will throw an interception (yes -120/no even); Christian McCaffrey 108½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -160/no +140); Deebo Samuel 76½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +125/no -145); Brandon Aiyuk 55½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +210/no -250); George Kittle 44½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +150/no -170) Robbie Gould 7½ kicking points.

3:03 p.m.: FINAL: Bengals 27, Bills 10. The Bengals dominated time of possession behind a strong running game and earned the outright win as +220 money-line underdogs to advance to the AFC championship for the second straight season. The game stayed under the total of 48½.

3:02 p.m.: Josh Allen was -140 to throw an interception.

2:49 p.m.: AFC championship game early line at Westgate SuperBook:

2:43 p.m.: The Bengals get a fourth-down stop and take over on downs midway through the fourth quarter. That might do it. The Bengals are -16½ on the live spread, total 43½.

2:38 p.m.: The Bills catch a break, as it’s called an incomplete pass and the Bills retain possession.

2:35 p.m.: Josh Allen is sacked and it’s ruled a fumble recovered by the Bengals. The play is being reviewed, and this could be the ball game.

2:29 p.m.: Evan McPherson tacks on a 20-yard field goal, and the Bengals lead the Bills 27-10 with 11:22 left in the fourth quarter. The Bengals are -2500 on the live line (Bills +1100), total 47½.

2:17 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. Bengals 24, Bills 10. The Bengals are -1200 on the live line (Bills +700), total 47½.

2:10 p.m.: After video review, Joe Mixon is rewarded with a 1-yard TD run and the Bengals lead the Bills 24-10 late in the third quarter. The Bengals are -650 on the live line (Bills +450), total 48½.

2:03 p.m.: Joe Mixon goes over 74½ rushing+receiving yards on his prop.

1:52 p.m.: The Bills put together a long drive to open the third quarter but settle for Tyler Bass’ 25-yard field goal. The Bengals lead the Bills 17-10 midway through the third. The Bengals are -200 on the live line (Bills +165), total 46½.

1:31 p.m.: Second-half line: Bills -7, total 26½.

1:25 p.m.: HALFTIME: Bengals 17, Bills 7. First-half winners: Bengals +3½, over 23½. Joe Burrow had a pair of TD passes, and the underdog covered outright. The total went over on Evan McPherson’s field goal for the Bengals with 1:49 left in the second quarter.

1:06 p.m.: Joe Burrow finds Ja’Marr Chase in the back of the end zone for what appeared to be a 10-yard score. But the call is overturned by video review and the Bengals have to settle for a field goal with 1:49 left until halftime. The Bengals lead 17-7 and are -150 on the live line (Bills +120), total 53½.

1:01 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Bengals are -210 on the live line (Bills +170), total 54½.

12:49 p.m.: Josh Allen plows into the end zone and the Bills are back in the game, trailing the Bengals 14-7 midway through the second quarter. Allen was +165 to score anytime TD. The Bengals are -130 on the live line (Bills even), total 54½.

12:37 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. Bengals 14, Bills 0. First-quarter winners: Bengals +½, over 9½.

12:24 p.m.: Joe Burrow over 1½ TD passes (-150) hits in the first quarter.

12:22 p.m.: Joe Burrow pump-fakes and finds tight end Hayden Hurst for a 15-yard touchdown. The Bengals lead the Bills 14-0 with 3:47 left in the first quarter. The Bengals are -160 on the live line (Bills +130), total 55½.

12:18 p.m.: The Bengals are on the move again and already have more than 100 yards of total offense midway through the first quarter. The Bengals are -130 on the live line (Bills even), total 52½.

12:08 p.m.: Ja’Marr Chase was 9-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the game’s first TD. He was +105 to score anytime TD.

12:06 p.m.: What an opening drive from the Bengals. Six plays, 79 yards and Ja’Marr Chase takes care of the final 28 with the TD reception from Joe Burrow. The Bengals lead the Bills 7-0 with 11:40 to go in the opening quarter.

12:02 p.m.: The Bengals and Bills are underway in snowy Buffalo. The Bengals start with the ball.

11:51 a.m.: Damar Hamlin is at the game in Buffalo.

11:46 a.m.: The latest from BetMGM:

Most bet player props

— Dawson Knox to score 1st TD (+1100)

— Dawson Knox to score anytime TD (+200)

— Josh Allen over 48½ rushing yards (-115)

— Devin Singletary under 37½ rushing yards (-120)

— Stefon Diggs over 6½ receptions (-110) Note: 99% of bets are on the OVER at @BetMGM

11:45 p.m.: Big bet at Caesars Sportsbook on the Bills:

11:40 a.m.: The outlook from Station Casinos:

11:30 a.m.: Here is today’s schedule:

— Bengals (+220) at Bills (-6, 48½ , -260), noon

— Cowboys (+175) at 49ers (-4, 46½, -200), 3:30 p.m.

11:25 a.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the Bengals-Bills game:

Team totals: Bengals 21½ (over -120), Bills 27½ (under -120).

Alternate point spreads: Bengals -3½ (+350), +10½ (-250); Bills +3½ (-420), -10½ (+210).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -175/no +155); largest lead 14½ points (over -120); longest TD 42½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +250/no -300); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes even/no -120); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +320/no -380); will either team score three straight times (yes -190/no +170); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -350/no +290); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes even/no -120).

Bengals props: Joe Burrow 26½ completions, 39½ attempts, 283½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -150), will throw an interception (yes -120/no even); Joe Mixon 74½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +120/no -140); Ja’Marr Chase 81½ receiving yards, 7½ receptions (under -125), will score a TD (yes +105/no -125); Tee Higgins 59½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +185/no -215); Tyler Boyd 37½ receiving yards; Evan McPherson 6½ kicking points (over -120).

Bills props: Josh Allen 22½ completions (over -120), 35½ attempts, 279½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -190), will throw an interception (yes -140/no +120), 47½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +165/no -185); Stefon Diggs 82½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions (over -130), will score a TD (yes +105/no -125); Gabriel Davis 53½ receiving yards; Dawson Knox 34½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +175/no -200); Tyler Bass 7½ kicking points (under -120).

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.

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