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MARCH MADNESS BAD BEATS BLOG: Gonzaga survives, favored over Baylor

Updated April 3, 2021 - 8:33 pm

We’re down to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.

First, South No. 1 seed Baylor takes on Midwest No. 2 Houston in an all-Texas matchup, then West No. 1 Gonzaga tries to continue its march to an undefeated season against a surprise semifinalist in East No. 11 UCLA.

We’ll be following all the action from both games. Refresh this blog throughout the day to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, props, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

8:26 p.m.: Phew. That’s it for today. All the drama lacking from the first semifinal was transferred to the second semifinal. Favorites went 2-0 straight-up but 1-1 against the spread. Top overall seed Gonzaga hit a buzzer-beater in overtime to beat UCLA 93-90, but the Bruins covered easily as 14½-point favorites. In the first game, No. 1 seed Baylor romped to a 78-59 victory over No. 2 Houston as a 5-point favorite. Totals went 2-0 to the over.

Gonzaga is a 4½-point favorite over Baylor at Circa Sports (total 160) in Monday’s national title game.

Betting results for both games — full game, first half and second half — are listed at the bottom of this story.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back Monday for the title game.

8:20 p.m.: Gonzaga-UCLA prop grades:

General props: Over 13½ combined pointers (15), largest lead by either team under 20½ points, first made field goal by either team will be a 2-pointer (-330), the game will go to overtime (+2,200).

Gonzaga points props: Drew Timme over 20½ (25), Corey Kispert under 17½ (15), Jalen Suggs over 14½ (16, hit at the buzzer), Joel Ayayi over 11½ (22), Andrew Nembhard over 8½ (11).

UCLA points props: Johnny Juzang over 17½ (29), Jaime Jaquez over 11½ (19), Tyger Campbell over 9½ (17), Jules Bernard under 10½ (5), Cody Riley over 8½ (14).

8:15 p.m.: UCLA covered the alternate lines of +9½ (+190) and +5½ (+375).

8:14 p.m.: Both teams go over their team totals. Gonzaga needed OT to go over 81½, UCLA sailed over 67.

8:11 p.m.: FINAL: Gonzaga 93, UCLA 90 (OT). Jalen Suggs banks in a 3 at the buzzer to give the No. 1 seed Bulldogs the victory at -1,500 ML. The No. 11 Bruins cover easily as 14½-point underdogs. The game went over 147½ easily in regulation. Gonzaga will face No. 1 Baylor in the national title game Monday.

8:05 p.m.: Gonzaga leads 87-85 with 1:32 left in OT.

8 p.m.: Gonzaga leads 87-83 with 3:13 left in overtime. The Bulldogs are -650 on the live line (UCLA +450).

7:56 p.m.: The teams go to overtime tied at 81. A prop that the game will go to overtime cashes at 22-1. Gonzaga is -240 to win in overtime (UCLA +195).

7:45 p.m.: UCLA hits a 3 to take a 77-75 lead with 2:49 left. Gonzaga is down to -140 on the live line (Bruins +110).

7:41 p.m.: The last basket clinched over 147½ for the game.

7:40 p.m.: Staying tight all the way. Gonzaga leads 75-74 with 3:54 left in the second half. The Bulldogs are -350 on the live line (UCLA +270), spread -3½, total 167½.

7:34 p.m.: UCLA takes the lead. The Bruins are up 71-70 with 6:04 left in the second half. Gonzaga is still favored at -225 on the live line (UCLA +180), spread -2½, total 167½.

7:28 p.m.: Gonzaga continues to cling to a lead, up 69-67 with 7:25 left in the second half. The Bulldogs are -550 on the live line (UCLA +390), spread -5½, total 169½.

7:16 p.m.: UCLA continues to battle. Gonzaga leads 61-57 with 12:08 left in the second half. The Bulldogs are -800 on the live line (Bruins +525), spread -8½, total 167½.

7:08 p.m.: Gonzaga and UCLA are tied at 52 with 14:52 left in the second half. Gonzaga is -375 on the live line (Bruins +285), spread -5½, total 163½.

6:51 p.m.: Easy prop winner: Gonzaga’s Joel Ayayi over 11½ points (16 already). UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell are well on their way to going over on their props. Juzang has 15 points (prop 17½), and Campbell has 9 (prop 9½).

6:44 p.m.: Current live line: Gonzaga -800 (UCLA +520), spread -9½, total 170.

6:40 p.m.: Second-half line: Gonzaga -9, total 81.

6:38 p.m.: HALFTIME: Gonzaga 45, UCLA 44. First-half winners: UCLA +8½, over 70. Gonzaga hit a shot to take the lead in the final seconds, preventing a big win for UCLA +425 ML in the first half.

6:23 p.m.: UCLA still leads, 36-34, with 3:41 left in the first half. Gonzaga is -650 on the live line (Bruins +440), spread -7½, total 162½.

6:11 p.m.: UCLA leads 27-25 with 7:57 left in the first half. Gonzaga is -900 on the live line (Bruins +540), spread -9½, total 160½.

6:07 p.m.: Gonzaga scores five straight to win the race to 20 points at -400. The Bulldogs lead 20-19.

6:03 p.m.: UCLA won the race to 15 at +255.

6:02 p.m.: UCLA is battling. The Bruins lead 19-15 with 10:55 left in the first half. Gonzaga is -590 on the live line (UCLA +410), spread -8½, total 151½.

5:54 p.m.: UCLA wins the race to 10 points at +200.

5:53 p.m.: Competitive early. UCLA leads Gonzaga 10-9 with 14:38 left in the first half. Gonzaga is -1,050 on the live line (UCLA +630), spread -12½, total 147½.

5:38 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:

— No. 1 Gonzaga (-14½, 147½, -1,500) vs. No. 11 UCLA (+850), 5:42 p.m.

4:58 p.m.: Houston’s demise also eliminates a $1 million futures bet on the Cougars at 9-1.

Houston furniture store owner Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale made a $1 million bet to win $9 million on Houston to win the NCAA title on the DraftKings app in Colorado before the Sweet 16.

4:20 p.m.: Baylor-Houston prop grades:

General props: Total 3 pointers made pushes on 17, largest lead by either team over 13½, first made field goal by either team will be a 3-pointer (+180), game won’t go to overtime (-1,610).

Baylor points props: Jared Butler over 15½ (17), Davion Mitchell under 13½ (12), MaCio Teague under 15½ (11), Adam Flagler under 7½ (7), Matthew Mayer over 6½ (12).

Houston points props: Quentin Grimes under 16½ (13), Marcus Sasser over 12½ (20), DeJon Jarreau under 11½ (6), Justin Gorham under 8½ (3), Fabian White Jr. under 6½ (4).

4:17 p.m.: Baylor was 2-1 at Boyd Gaming to win by 11 or more. The Bears were +750 at BetMGM to win by 16 to 20 points. Baylor covers the alternate lines of -9½ (+180) and -12½ (+300).

4:15 p.m.: Turned out there was some drama with the total. The game went over on a Baylor jumper with 19.3 seconds left.

4:14 p.m.: FINAL: Baylor 78, Houston 59. The No. 1 seed Bears jump out to a big lead and cruise to the cover as 5-point favorites, -230 ML against the No. 2 Cougars. The game goes over 135½ on a Baylor jumper with 19 seconds left. Baylor goes over its team total of 70; Houston stays under 65.

4:05 p.m.: Any remaining drama comes from the second-half lines. Houston is -2 and is up six in the second half. The total is likely heading under 71 with 56 so far.

4:03 p.m.: Under four to go. Baylor leads 70-51 with 3:48 left in the second half. The Bears are -17½ on the live spread.

3:54 p.m.: No changes. Baylor leads 60-41 with 7:47 left in the second half. The Bears are -17½ on the live spread, total 128½ (live line turned off).

3:40 p.m.: Baylor leads 54-36 with 11:59 left in the second half. The Bears are -100,000 on the live line (Houston +3,000), spread -16½, total 133½.

3:34 p.m.: Baylor leads 52-32 with 14:20 left in the second half. The Bears are -100,000 on the live line (Houston +3,000), spread -17½, total 134½.

3:05 p.m.: Second-half line: Houston -2, total 71.

3:03 p.m.: HALFTIME: Baylor 45, Houston 20. First-half winners: Baylor -2½, over 62½. The Bears hit a 3 at the buzzer to push the first-half total over.

2:54 p.m.: Baylor’s Jared Butler already has 17 points to go over his prop total of 15½.

2:53 p.m.: We could be headed for a blowout. Baylor leads 38-17 with 3:53 left in the first half. The Bears are -20,000 on the live line (Houston +2,800), spread -18½, total 140½.

2:51 p.m.: The largest lead by either team over 13½ points cashes. Baylor’s Mayer hits a basket to clinch over 6½ points, then Sasser hits another 3 to go over 12½ points.

2:50 p.m.: Baylor’s on all cylinders. The Bears lead 33-17 with 5:08 left in the first half and are -4,500 on the live line (Houston +1,300), spread -14½, total 139½.

2:45 p.m.: Houston’s Marcus Sasser has already almost hit the over on his points prop of 12½. He has 12 of Houston’s 14 points on four 3-pointers. Baylor’s Matthew Mayer is a bucket away from hitting his prop of 6½.

2:44 p.m.: Baylor leads 25-14 with 7:48 left in the first half. The Bears are -1,200 on the live line (Houston +680), spread -11½, total 137½.

2:26 p.m.: Baylor is rolling so far. The Bears lead 22-11 with 10:40 left in the first half and are -1,050 on the live line (Houston +630), spread -11½, total 140½. Baylor wins the race to 20 points at -160.

2:31 p.m.: Baylor leads 17-11 with 11:52 left in the first half. The Bears are -470 on the live line (Houston +340), spread -8½, total 139½.

2:29 p.m.: Baylor wins the race to 10 points at -130 and the race to 15 at -140.

2:23 p.m.: Baylor has the early lead. The Bears are up 13-8 with 14:16 left in the first half and are -470 on the live line (Houston +340), spread -8½, total 138½.

2:17 p.m.: The first made field goal will be a 3-pointer cashes at +180. Houston leads 3-0.

2:10 p.m.: The first game is about to tip off:

— No. 1 Baylor (-5, 135½, -230) vs. No. 2 Houston (+195), 2:14 p.m.

2 p.m.: Here are some big bets that have been placed on today’s games, compiled by Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey:

— $770,000 to win $70,000 on Gonzaga money line -1,100 (William Hill)

— $308,000 to win $280,000 on Baylor -5 (BetMGM)

— $280,500 to win $255,000 on Houston +5 (BetMGM)

— $275,000 to win $250,000 on Gonzaga -14 (BetMGM)

— $270,000 to win $30,000 on Gonzaga ML -900 (South Point)

— $115,000 to win $100,000 on Gonzaga -8 in the first half (BetMGM)

1:55 p.m.: Here’s how the lines have moved today:

Baylor still -5

Baylor-Houston total from 134½ to 135½

Gonzaga still -14

Gonzaga-UCLA total from 146 to 146½

1:50 p.m.: Here are props we’re tracking on each game:

— Baylor vs. Houston

Team totals: Baylor 70; Houston 65

Alternate lines: Baylor -9½ (+180), Baylor -12½ (+300); Houston -3½ (+320), Houston -6½ (+475)

General props: Total 3 pointers made 17, largest lead by either team 13½, first made field goal by either team (2-pointer -210/3-pointer +180), first to score 10 points (Bayor -130/Houston +110), first to score 15 points (Baylor -140/Houston +120), first to score 20 points (Baylor -160/Houston +140), will the game go to overtime (no -1,610/yes +1,000).

Baylor points props: Jared Butler 15½, Davion Mitchell 13½, MaCio Teague 15½, Adam Flagler 7½ (over -120), Matthew Mayer 6½.

Houston points props: Quentin Grimes 16½, Marcus Sasser 12½, DeJon Jarreau 11½, Justin Gorham 8½ (under -130), Fabian White Jr. 6½.

— Gonzaga vs. UCLA

Team totals: Gonzaga 81½; UCLA 67

Alternate lines: Gonzaga -18½ (+175), Gonzaga -22½ (+330); UCLA +5½ (+375), UCLA +9½ (+190)

General props: Total 3 pointers made 13½ (over -125), largest lead by either team 20½, first made field goal by either team (2-pointer -330/3-pointer +275), first to score 10 points (Gonzaga -240/UCLA +200), first to score 15 points (Gonzaga -305/UCLA +255), first to score 20 points (Gonzaga -400/UCLA +330), will the game go to overtime (no -5,900/yes +2,200).

Gonzaga points props: Drew Timme 20½, Corey Kispert 17½ (over -125), Jalen Suggs 14½, Joel Ayayi 11½, Andrew Nembhard 8½.

UCLA points props: Johnny Juzang 17½, Jaime Jaquez 11½ (over -120), Tyger Campbell 9½ (over -120), Jules Bernard 10½, Cody Riley 8½ (under -120).

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

— No. 1 Baylor 78, No. 2 Houston 59

Full-game winners: Baylor -5, over 135½, Baylor -230 ML

First-half winners: Baylor -2½, over 62½ (Baylor 45-20)

Second-half winners: Houston -2, over 71 (Houston 39-33)

— No. 1 Gonzaga (-14½, 147½, -1,500) vs. No. 11 UCLA (+850), 5:42 p.m.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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