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Jim Barnes’ college forecast: Right time to fade Cincinnati, Iowa

Cincinnati and Iowa will have a bad week at some point this season, but timing is everything for bettors.

Temple +30 was a popular contrarian play last week with Cincinnati coming off its big win over Notre Dame, but the Bearcats crushed the Owls 52-3.

Bettors tried to catch Iowa looking ahead to Penn State two weeks ago, but the Hawkeyes dominated Maryland 51-14 as 3-point road favorites.

Wagering on the much worse team isn’t fun. Bettors can feel foolish when a favorite arrives focused and blows a big underdog away.

That certainly could be the case again Saturday for Cincinnati and Iowa, but I’m wagering that this is the week they’re due for a letdown.

Coach Gus Malzahn is off to a rocky start with Central Florida. The Knights lost as big favorites two weeks ago to Navy, then survived against East Carolina last week.

Cincinnati has the College Football Playoff in its sights, but the Bearcats can’t destroy everyone, right? The line keeps going up, but I’ll take 22½ with Central Florida.

Iowa just keeps grinding along, including rallying to beat Penn State 23-20 last week after Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford was injured.

Purdue has struggled to score this season, but its defense has been solid. Take the Boilermakers +12 and count on Iowa grinding to another close win.

Here are three other plays for Saturday:

New Mexico +11: Another scary underdog. The Lobos have lost four straight and haven’t scored more than 13 points in any of them. Colorado State beat Toledo and San Jose State and stuck close to Iowa, but I can’t picture the Rams covering double digits on the road.

Western Michigan -7: The Broncos won four straight after an opening loss to Michigan before collapsing in the second half last week against Ball State. The Cardinals scored four straight touchdowns to beat Western Michigan 45-20, and I expect the Broncos to bounce back after giving up four turnovers in the loss. There’s nothing impressive about Kent State to warrant backing off Western Michigan.

Tennessee +2½: The Volunteers have poured on the points in the past two weeks, beating Missouri 62-24 and South Carolina 24-20. They’ll need to score plenty again Saturday, but that shouldn’t be a problem against defense-optional Mississippi. (The total on this game is 83 for a reason.) The Rebels come off tough games against Alabama and Arkansas, and here’s betting Tennessee will be the more focused team.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 14-15-1

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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