How Patrick Mahomes’ injury impacts AFC championship game prop bets
Video of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes jogging and throwing passes in practice was enough to flip the line for Sunday’s AFC championship game back in favor of Kansas City.
But bettors haven’t shown as much confidence in Mahomes on player props because of the uncertainty surrounding his right ankle.
“There’s less money on player props in that game, and I think it’s probably because of Mahomes,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “People don’t know what to make of his status, and he’s such an important piece of that game. His health status impacts the player props on both sides.”
Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain early in the Chiefs’ 27-20 divisional round victory over Jacksonville but is expected to start against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.
What’s not clear to bettors is how the injury will impact Kansas City’s game plan on offense and whether Mahomes will be limited in the passing game.
The SuperBook listed Mahomes props of 25½ completions (over -120), 37½ attempts, 284 passing yards, 38½ longest completion and 2½ touchdown passes (under -165). He also is -110 to throw an interception.
The South Point has Mahomes at 25½ completions, 282½ passing yards, 2½ touchdown passes (under -165) and -110 to throw an interception.
“We made the props with the assumption that he’s going to be OK,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
At Caesars Sportsbook, Mahomes’ passing yards prop opened at 272½ and climbed to 281½ (over -145), but 72.5 percent of the tickets and 59.5 percent of the handle are on the under.
In response to Mahomes’ injury status, Circa Sports on Friday posted a “Will Chad Henne Play at Least One Snap?” prop, with the opening odds on the Chiefs backup quarterback set at Yes +600/No -825. On Saturday, the odds were down to Yes +325/No -400.
Circa also hung a Bengals-Chiefs “Total Players With A Pass Attempt” prop at 2½ (Over +170/Under -195) and will Chiefs tight ends Travis Kelce or Noah Gray have a rush attempt (Yes +275/No -330).
The Patrick Mahomes uncertainty props continue here at @CircaSports. We keep pumping em’ out. We just hung “Total Players With A Pass Attempt?” in the AFC Championship Game #teamPat #teamChad 🏈 pic.twitter.com/quAV1J1lRj
— Jeffrey Benson (@JeffreyBenson12) January 28, 2023
Murray said sharp money showed up on props from the NFC championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ rushing yards prop was bet up to 47½ from 45½, and Eagles running back Miles Sanders’ rushing yards is up to 50½ from 49½.
“I guess the idea being Philadelphia will be able to run the ball, which would lead you to believe these people think the Eagles will be winning the game,” Murray said. “There’s definitely a lot of people that think there will be some fireworks in that game.”
The public and sharps at the SuperBook are betting 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey to go over 91½ combined rushing and receiving yards, Murray said. That number was at 89½ on Friday.
Andrews reported a significant bet on Kansas City to win Sunday by seven to 10 points at 10-1 odds. He also received a “pretty decent-sized” bet on the 49ers not to win the Super Bowl at -340.
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.