Expect Utah State to handle Ohio in Idaho Potato Bowl

Motivation and location are two pivotal factors in predicting the outcome of bowl games. For today’s Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, the Aggies have an advantage over Ohio in both areas.

Utah State, which blew a late lead in its season opener at Auburn, came on strong to finish the regular season with a five-game winning streak.

The Aggies (7-5) are familiar with the surroundings at Bronco Stadium, in which they played last year. On the other hand, Ohio had to travel west into cold weather.

The Bobcats (9-4), coached by Frank Solich, still are suffering a hangover from a devastating loss to Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference championship on Dec. 2. Ohio led the Huskies 20-0 midway through the third quarter before losing, 23-20.

I’ll side with Utah State as a 2-point favorite.

In terms of motivation, the Aggies are making their first postseason appearance since 1997, so they are happy to be in this game.

After missing four games because of a back injury, freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton is set to return for Utah State. Keeton threw 11 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. When he went down, Adam Kennedy filled in to fuel the winning streak.

But the quarterback won’t have to carry the load. The Aggies have the Western Athletic Conference player of the year in Robert Turbin, a junior running back who has 51 career rushing touchdowns. With Turbin expected to bolt for the NFL, I’m expecting him to go out in style with a huge performance to lead Utah State to a win and spread cover.

Three more plays for today’s bowls:

New Mexico Bowl

■ Wyoming (+7) over Temple — The Cowboys thrive as underdogs, compiling a 5-2 spread record with three outright wins. Wyoming has won five of its past seven games, losing only to Boise State and Texas Christian.

It helps that Wyoming has played tougher competition in the Mountain West, and I expect quarterback Brett Smith (2,495 yards passing, 18 touchdowns) to lead his team to an outright win. In their past two postseason appearances, in 2004 and 2009, the Cowboys won outright as double-digit underdogs to UCLA and Fresno State.

New Orleans Bowl

■ San Diego State (-4½) over Louisiana-Lafayette — The motivation and location edges are with the Ragin’ Cajuns, who are playing in their home state and their first bowl as a Football Bowl Subdivision program, but the Aztecs are far more talented. Again, the MWC is a much stronger conference than the Sun Belt.

Ronnie Hillman, a sophomore with more than 3,000 yards rushing and 36 career touchdowns, is poised for another monster performance that should lead San Diego State to the cover.

■ San Diego State-Louisiana-Lafayette (Over 59) — The Ragin’ Cajuns have seen the “over” go 8-4 overall and 4-1 in their past five games. Seven of their 12 games totaled 65 points or more.

The game features two solid quarterbacks. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by Blaine Gautier, who has a 21-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Aztecs’ Ryan Lindley has 20 touchdown passes, and his play-action opportunities are made easier thanks to the presence of Hillman. It should be a shootout.

Last week: 3-1 against the spread

Season: 34-25-2

Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.