Eli is right pick over Vick

Manning and the Giants are in for a fight against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 2-1 but under fire from critics for their sloppy play in September. The Eagles, laying 2 to 2½ points, are 0-3 against the spread and favored for the fourth consecutive week.

While Manning leads the NFL with 1,011 yards passing, Philadelphia quarterback Michael Vick has led the league in costly mistakes. The Eagles have committed 12 turnovers, three more than any other team, with Vick throwing six interceptions and losing three fumbles.

"The Eagles are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are lucky to be 2-1 and yet money inexplicably keeps showing up for them each week," Las Vegas handicapper Doug Fitz said. "Their offensive stats are respectable, but turnovers and an inability to score are the main reasons for their 0-3 ATS record.

"One thing I love to side with is an underdog that can score, and the Giants can certainly do that."

The Giants, who have covered their past six games away from home, are averaging 31.3 points a game. Top wide receiver Hakeem Nicks will miss his second straight game, but running back Ahmad Bradshaw is returning to the lineup.

Giants defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck will be in hot pursuit of Vick, who needs running back LeSean McCoy to balance the Eagles’ offense and slow the pass rush.

Philadelphia coach Andy Reid is 4-10 in his past 14 games as a favorite. The road team won and covered in both meetings in this NFC East series last season.

"The Eagles will more than likely get it together eventually, but the value right now is on the Giants with the public betting the Eagles," said Fitz, who posts his opinions for free at Systemplays.com. "I’ll take the points as insurance, but the Giants win straight up."

Fitz scouts the rest of today’s Week 4 schedule:

■ New England (-4) at Buffalo: I seldom recommend any favorite, let alone a road favorite, but I can’t see the Bills staying with the Patriots this week. Tom Brady is averaging 295.7 passing yards a game, and the Buffalo defense allows 248 yards a game through the air. The Patriots, off back-to-back losses by a combined three points, win with relative ease.

■ Minnesota at Detroit (-4): It appears Matthew Stafford will start at quarterback for the Lions, but it doesn’t make much difference to me if backup Shaun Hill plays. Detroit’s defense is the problem, allowing 31.3 points a game. With quarterback Christian Ponder making plays and Adrian Peterson providing a running threat, the Vikings’ offense has played well and should score enough against a weak Lions defense to cover.

■ Carolina at Atlanta (-7): Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is suffering from the sophomore jinx. He has two touchdown passes and five interceptions, and he’s not surprising any defenses. He could be in for a long day against the Falcons, who always play well at home and are clicking on both sides of the ball. Matt Ryan has completed 72 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns for Atlanta, which is 3-0 ATS.

■ San Francisco (-4) at New York Jets: This is a terrible spot for the Jets, who lost Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis for the season and are facing a strong 49ers team coming off a loss. To complicate matters, the Jets’ defense allows 148.7 yards rushing, and San Francisco averages 141 yards on the ground. The 49ers won’t get caught sleeping two weeks in a row.

■ San Diego (-1) at Kansas City: The Chiefs overcame an 18-point deficit to win at New Orleans last week, but the Saints rank last in the league in total defense. Kansas City was blown out in its first two games by better opponents, Atlanta and Buffalo. The Chargers were whipped by the Falcons last week, but they looked impressive in their first two games. I believe these teams revert to form of the first two weeks, and I’ll side with San Diego.

■ Tennessee at Houston (-12): It’s hard to argue against the Texans at home, but I promise that betting on double-digit favorites in the NFL is the best way to empty your wallet in a hurry. Houston is showing no weaknesses, but quarterback Jake Locker got the Titans offense moving last week, and they should put up enough points to cover this big number.

■ Seattle (-3) at St. Louis: The Rams are noticeably better with Jeff Fisher as coach. The Seahawks, who lost as road favorites in Week 1, were 6-10 ATS on the road the past two seasons. Seattle’s miracle Monday night win might also be a distraction and a letdown. I’ll take the points with St. Louis.

■ Miami at Arizona (-5): Conventional wisdom says to ride the hot team at home, but conventional wisdom has doomed NFL bettors since point spreads were invented. The Dolphins rank No. 4 in the league by averaging 175.7 yards rushing, mostly because of Reggie Bush, who is off to a great start. In addition, their defense is excellent against the run, allowing 66.3 yards. That’s bad news for the Cardinals, who struggle on the ground. Miami should be able to control the line of scrimmage and the tempo to keep the score close. Arizona is unaccustomed to the favorite’s role, laying more than 3½ points for only the third time in three years.

■ Oakland at Denver (-7): The Raiders always seem to play well at Denver, and they excel as underdogs. Oakland is 9-3 ATS against division opponents and 14-8 as an underdog the past two seasons. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is always dangerous, and he’s off back-to-back losses. But Denver’s defense, which has allowed 77 points through three games, is way too soft against the pass, and the Raiders’ Carson Palmer is improved as a passer. I’ll take the underdog.

■ Cincinnati (-1½) at Jacksonville: The Bengals are soft defensively and giving up a ton of points (34 per game). Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert is looking much better and far more comfortable compared to his terrible rookie season. The home ‘dog is in a good spot.

■ New Orleans at Green Bay (-7½): The Saints have been awful on defense, allowing 34 points a game, and are 0-3 straight up and ATS because of it. However, Drew Brees is still a great quarterback, and the Saints are still scoring, so they will keep this closer than most people expect. I don’t know if the Packers’ dramatic Monday loss will be a distraction, but they are in a tough spot after that debacle and laying a lot of points on a short week.

■ Washington at Tampa Bay (-2): Neither defense is good against the pass, so the running attacks should be the difference. The Redskins have the decided advantage, averaging 180.7 yards rushing to rank No. 2 in the league, compared with the Bucs’ 94.7. Plus, Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III can make plays on the run.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL