Election betting odds flip again before 1st presidential debate

Las Vegas Review-Journal

2 months ago

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., ... — In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo)

On the eve of Tuesday’s presidential debate, former President Donald Trump is the election betting favorite again over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump is a -130 favorite at BetOnline to win the election over Harris, the +110 underdog.

Harris was a slight +100 favorite over Trump after the Democratic National Convention ended Aug. 22. But Trump has since surpassed her.

“General sentiment is that Harris’ honeymoon period is over, no convention bounce,” BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty told the Review-Journal. “The New York Times/Siena poll is a clear good signal for Trump.”

The results of the respected poll showed Sunday that Trump now leads Harris nationally among likely voters, 48-47.

Trump has a 50.8 percent chance, which equates to the -103 favorite, to win back the White House, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com and Polymarket.com.

Harris has a 47.1 percent chance, which equates to the +112 underdog, according to the site.

A negative number represents how much a bettor must wager to win $100. At the current odds at BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that isn’t regulated in the U.S., a bettor would have to wager $130 to win $100 on Trump to be elected.

A positive number represents how much a bettor would win on a $100 wager. At the current odds at BetOnline, a bettor would win $110 on a $100 wager on Harris to win the election.

Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

The first presidential debate had a major impact on the odds. President Joe Biden’s chances plummeted after a widely panned performance that led him to withdraw from the race.

Harris is a heavy -300 favorite at BetOnline to win the debate over Trump, a 2-1 underdog.

“Judgements are formed once people see the head-to-head framing. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see sharp market moves on the night,” Krishnamurty said. “That was the case historically, and especially during the June debate. At BetOnline, we saw big action on Trump as Biden imploded, but afterwards a lot came back for Biden as they thought it could be an overreaction.

“Harris is the hot favorite, so that might be a clue that her (election) odds will shorten up.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.