ELECTION BETTING BLOG: Trump’s odds to win best in past week
America votes for its next president Tuesday.
Will Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, follow President Joe Biden into office? Or will former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, return to the Oval Office after losing his re-election bid in 2020?
One way to keep up with the race as votes are counted is by following the election betting happening around the world (though not in the U.S., where it is illegal for sportsbooks to offer odds on the race).
We’re following the race state by state, plus updating movement on the overall betting line, which can often be an early indicator of where the election is headed.
UPDATES
Running Electoral College total (from New York Times): Trump 95, Harris 35 (270 needed to win)
5:16 p.m.: Trump is up to -230 to be elected at BetOnline (Harris +190).
5:03 p.m.: Several states have just been called:
For Trump:
— Alabama (-10,000 for Trump to win, 9 Electoral College votes)
— Florida (-2,500, 30)
— Mississippi (-10,000, 6)
— Oklahoma (-20,000, 7)
— South Carolina (-10,000, 9)
— Tennessee (-20,000, 11)
For Harris:
— Connecticut (-10,000 for Harris to win, 7)
— Maryland (-10,000, 10)
— Massachusetts (-10,000, 11)
— Rhode Island (-10,000, 4)
5 p.m.: As Trump has soared to a -225 favorite over Harris at offshore sportsbook BetOnline and -200 at London-based Betfair Exchange to win the election, the Republicans’ odds to win the key swing state of Pennsylvania have dropped.
According to Oddschecker.com, the United Kingdom’s biggest betting aggregator, the Republicans are now -118 favorites (50.8 percent implied probability) to win the state and the Democrats are +110 (49.2 percent).
“After being stronger towards the Republicans earlier in the day, we’ve seen a shift back in the betting towards a Democrat win,” Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman said in an email. “Nonetheless, 63.4 percent over the past 24 hours have backed the Democrats.”
At Betfair, the Republicans are -110 favorites and the Democrats even-money underdogs.
The book noted that Pennsylvania is considered the key swing state with 19 electoral college votes, and the winning party will likely win the election.
4:53 p.m.: Trump is up to -215 now at BetOnline, which exceeds his high water mark from the past week.
4:43 p.m.: Odds are moving switfly toward Trump. He’s up to -200 now at BetOnline.
4:41 p.m.: Trump is back up to -180 to be elected at BetOnline, his high point of the day.
4:32 p.m.: Trump is up to -170 to be elected at BetOnline (Harris +140)
4:30 p.m.: Trumps wins West Virginia and its four electoral votes. He was -20,000 to carry the state.
4:15 p.m.: Now Trump moves back to -160 to be elected. This will be a marathon, not a sprint.
4:14 p.m.: Trump will win Indiana and its 11 votes. He was -10,000 to carry the state.
4:05 p.m.: Trump -145 to win the Electoral College at BetOnline, down from -162 less than an hour ago. He is -125 to win Nevada.
4 p.m.: The first results are in.
Trump will win Kentucky, CNN projects. He was -10,000 to win the state’s eight electoral votes.
Harris will win Vermont and its three votes, CNN projects. She was -20,000 to take the state.
3:30 p.m.: Trump’s odds are mostly holding steady at -162 to win the Electoral College and -125 to win Nevada at BetOnline.
3:20 p.m.: Several prominent polling experts, including Nate Silver, project the presidential election to be a 50-50 race or have Vice President Kamala Harris winning. Yet former President Donald Trump remains a solid -162 betting favorite over Harris, the +142 underdog.
Among the polling experts, Nate Silver, The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight had the race at essentially a 50-50 toss-up Tuesday morning. The Economist gave Harris a 56 percent chance of winning.
BetOnline’s -162 price on Trump implies he has a 61.8 percent chance of winning.
BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said there are several reasons for the disparity.
“The odds are a combo of (a) our liabilities, (b) the wider market price, (c) our judgement,” he told the Review-Journal via WhatsApp. “In this case, I think the odds are skewed to Trump.”
On Monday night at BetOnline, 54.9 percent of the total money wagered was on Trump, though 58.1 percent of the tickets, or total number of bets placed, were on Harris.
As of Monday night, the offshore sportsbook said it would incur a low seven-figure loss if Harris won, while it would win a little less than seven figures if Trump won.
BetOnline reported it has taken more than $10 million in wagers on the election.
The London-based Betfair Exchange reported Tuesday that it had surpassed 200 million pounds, or $260 million, in wagers matched on the election winner market.
The New York-based Kalshi exchange has had more than $272 million traded on the election as of 3:15 p.m. A federal appeals court on Oct. 2 cleared the company — a prediction market, not a sportsbook — to resume taking action on election trading/betting.
Trump has a 57 percent chance (-133) at Kalshi.com to win the election, while Harris has a 43 percent chance (+133).
2:17 p.m.: Of course, there are other races on the ballot besides president.
Nevada U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, was a -550 favorite overnight at BetOnline to retain her seat over Republican challenger Sam Brown (+375).
In other Senate races:
— Democrat Ruben Gallego was a -300 favorite overnight over Republican Kari Lake (+240) in an open race in Arizona.
— Republican incumbent Deb Fischer was a -550 favorite overnight over independent Dan Osborn (+400) in Nebraska.
— Republican incumbent Ted Cruz was a -600 favorite overnight over Democrat Colin Allred (+375) in Texas.
The odds on all the Senate races were off the board Tuesday afternoon.
1:28 p.m.: Trump now down slightly to -165 to win the Electoral College at BetOnline (Harris +145), but he is up slightly to -130 to carry Nevada (Harris +100).
Harris is -400 to win the popular vote (Trump +300), unchanged from overnight.
12:50 p.m.: There was a big shift in the Electoral College vote winner market in Nevada on Tuesday, when Trump dropped from a -145 favorite overnight at BetOnline to pick’em (-115) before inching back up to -135, then back down to -125. Harris is a -105 underdog.
Democrats are even-money underdogs in the United Kingdom to win the Silver State, according to Oddschecker.com, the UK’s biggest betting aggregator, which compares odds and takes bets from more than 25 of the nation’s biggest bookmakers.
“A big shift in the betting odds in Nevada so far on Election Day has seen (Harris’) probability improve from 43 percent to 47.3 percent. Some of our bookmakers have the Democrats as favorites to win the state,” Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman said in an email to the Review-Journal. “61.9 percent of bets placed through Oddschecker on Tuesday have backed the Democrats to win in Nevada, an increase from 43 percent since October 13.”
The presidential election will probably be decided by seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Here’s how the odds have shifted overnight to now at BetOnline:
Arizona: Trump -360 to -450
Georgia: Trump -220 to -230
Michigan: Harris -205 to -210
Nevada: Trump -145 to -125
North Carolina: Trump -215 to -270
Pennsylvania: Trump -150 to -155
Wisconsin: Harris -140 to -135
Noon: Former President Donald Trump strengthened his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in presidential betting odds Tuesday morning on Election Day.
Trump, who was a -159 favorite on Monday night at BetOnline, climbed to -175 on Tuesday morning before dipping to -162. He shot back up to -173 as of 11:45 a.m. at the offshore sportsbook, which isn’t regulated in the U.S.
Harris is the +152 underdog.
The current odds mean bettors must wager $173 to win $100 on Trump to be elected president and $100 to win $152 on Harris to win the election.
In the past 100 years, only four betting underdogs on Election Day have won the presidency, according to SportsOddsHistory.com: Trump in 2016 (+375), Jimmy Carter in 1976 (+100), John F. Kennedy in 1960 (+110) and Harry Truman in 1948 (15-1).
The odds before 2012 are taken from newspaper accounts at the time that included conversations with oddsmakers and other betting analysts.
Here are where all the state races stood overnight at BetOnline, with the favorite listed first:
Alabama (9 votes)
Trump -10,000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
Harris 25-1 (bet $100 to win $2,500)
Alaska (3 votes)
Trump -1,600
Harris 8-1
Arizona (11 votes)
Trump -360
Harris +285
Arkansas (6 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
California (54 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Colorado (10 votes)
Harris -5,000
Trump 16-1
Connecticut (7 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Delaware (3 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
District of Columbia (3 votes)
Odds not posted; seen as lock for Harris
Florida (30 votes)
Trump -2,500
Harris 12-1
Georgia (16 votes)
Trump -220
Harris +180
Hawaii (4 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Idaho (4 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Illinois (19 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Indiana (11 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Iowa (6 votes)
Trump -600
Harris +400
Kansas (6 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Kentucky (8 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Louisiana (8 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Maine (4 votes, allocated proportionally)
Harris -1,200
Trump 7-1
Maryland (10 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Massachusetts (11 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
Michigan (15 votes)
Harris -205
Trump +165
Minnesota (10 votes)
Harris -900
Trump +550
Mississippi (6 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Missouri (10 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Montana (4 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Nebraska (5 votes, allocated proportionally)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Nevada (6 votes)
Trump -145
Harris +115
New Hampshire (4 votes)
Harris -550
Trump +375
New Jersey (14 votes)
Harris -5,000
Trump 20-1
New Mexico (5 votes)
Harris -1,200
Trump +650
New York (28 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
North Carolina (16 votes)
Trump -215
Harris +175
North Dakota (3 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Ohio (17 votes)
Trump -1,600
Harris 8-1
Oklahoma (7 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Oregon (8 votes)
Harris -8,000
Trump 20-1
Pennsylvania (19 votes)
Trump -150
Harris +120
Rhode Island (4 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 25-1
South Carolina (9 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
South Dakota (3 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Tennessee (11 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Texas (40 votes)
Trump -5,000
Harris 16-1
Utah (6 votes)
Trump -10,000
Harris 25-1
Vermont (3 votes)
Harris -20,000
Trump 40-1
Virginia (13 votes)
Harris -1,200
Trump +650
Washington (12 votes)
Harris -10,000
Trump 20-1
West Virginia (4 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Wisconsin (10 votes)
Harris -140
Trump +110
Wyoming (3 votes)
Trump -20,000
Harris 40-1
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter. Contact Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.