DOUG FITZ: Bears’ defense can challenge Patriots

Most of the credit goes to the Bears’ defense.

And that defense is about to get tested by the NFL’s hottest hand as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (10-2) meet Chicago (9-3) today at Soldier Field.

Brady, who has passed for 3,029 yards and 27 touchdowns with only four interceptions, dismantled the New York Jets in a 45-3 victory Monday night.

But it’s doubtful Brady can make it look so easy against Julius Peppers and a Chicago defense that ranks No. 3 in the league. To add a degree of difficulty, the forecast calls for temperatures below 20 with wind gusts from 30 to 50 mph.

Las Vegas handicapper Doug Fitz of Systemplays.com recommends the Bears as 3-point underdogs.

"Peppers has the speed to pressure Brady in the pocket. The Bears have a strong defensive line, and their linebackers possess excellent coverage skills, which should make it difficult for Brady to throw the short passes," Fitz said. "When Brady goes long, Chicago’s outstanding secondary should prevent big plays."

Cutler, sacked 41 times with 10 interceptions, has looked smoother during a five-game winning streak. He’s getting better pass protection and more support from Matt Forte, who has 748 yards rushing.

Fitz analyzes the rest of today’s Week 14 schedule:

■ Oakland at Jacksonville (-4): The Raiders could be in a letdown spot after their upset win at San Diego last week. To make matters worse, they travel to the East Coast, where they lost their previous two games by a combined 57 points. The Jaguars keep winning, even in unfavorable spots. Jacksonville is 4-2 against the spread at home, and I can’t see a reason to go against the favorite here.

■ Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-8½): The Bengals have packed it in for the year. It appears coach Marvin Lewis has little to no chance of returning next season. Although I believe this line is too high, I’ll side with the more motivated Steelers.

■ Cleveland at Buffalo (-1): The Browns have a 3-2 ATS mark on the road, and Buffalo’s defense has been porous of late. Cleveland quarterback Jake Delhomme has not scared too many defenses since returning as a starter, but he can rely on running back Peyton Hillis to shoulder most of the load. I’ll side with the better team, the Browns.

■ New York Giants (-3) at Minnesota: Although the Vikings have played well since Brad Childress was fired as coach, this isn’t a good spot for them. With quarterback Brett Favre and wide receiver Percy Harvin injured, Minnesota could be forced to run the ball even more. Adrian Peterson is having another outstanding season, rushing for 1,123 yards and 11 touchdowns, but the Giants’ defense is excellent against the run by allowing only 98 yards per game.

■ Green Bay (-6½) at Detroit: The Packers scored more than 30 points in three of their past four games, and the Detroit defense has allowed an average of 34.6 points in the past three games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should turn this into a shootout that goes over the total (46½).

■ Atlanta (-7) at Carolina: The Panthers are one of the NFL’s worst offensive teams in recent memory. The Falcons (10-2) are on cruise control toward the playoffs, and with Seattle up next, there’s no reason for Atlanta to look ahead. Carolina’s defense allows 133 rushing yards per game, and the Falcons have a strong running back in Michael Turner. Teams that can’t score have little chance of covering a number, as evidenced by the Panthers being 3-9 ATS. Carolina can expect another long day.

■ Tampa Bay (-2) at Washington: The Buccaneers have had a remarkable turnaround. Tampa Bay is solid on both sides of the ball and has one of the league’s better young quarterbacks in Josh Freeman. The Redskins have lost four of five straight up and ATS. Washington’s woes should continue.

■ St. Louis at New Orleans (-9): Despite their improved play of late, the Saints are 5-7 ATS. The Rams are 7-3 ATS and have been competitive in almost every game. New Orleans has a game at Baltimore next week, so this could be a lookahead spot, and the Rams can take advantage of the generous point spread.

■ Seattle at San Francisco (-5): The 49ers are going back to Alex Smith at quarterback, after recently starting Troy Smith. That’s much of the problem for San Francisco, which is a confused team with no identity or direction. Star running back Frank Gore is out for the year, adding another problem. The Seahawks routed the 49ers 31-6 in Week 1, so taking the underdog seems like a good move.

■ Miami at New York Jets (-5½): The Jets are the NFL’s most overrated team. Most of their wins came against teams they should have beaten easily, but they needed the help of bad calls or lucky breaks. After being exposed in a 42-point loss at New England, I’m not sure they can recover from that embarrassment. The Dolphins are 5-1 straight up and ATS on the road.

■ Denver (-4) at Arizona: The Broncos average 21.3 points per game, while the Cardinals average 16.7. To make matters worse, Arizona rookie quarterback John Skelton is getting his first start. The firing of coach Josh McDaniels could work in Denver’s favor, just as coaching changes motivated Dallas and Minnesota.

■ Kansas City at San Diego (-9): The Chargers got caught in a lookahead spot last week and lost to the Raiders. So expect San Diego to be focused and win. The Chiefs don’t defend the pass well, and that is trouble against Philip Rivers. The Chargers’ run defense, allowing 95.2 yards per game, should contain Kansas City, which will be without quarterback Matt Cassel.

■ Philadelphia (-3½) at Dallas: The Cowboys are riding a four-game ATS win streak, but their defense still surrenders too many points. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has made a habit of carving up bad defenses. With two high-scoring offenses and a soft Dallas defense, this should sail over the total of 50½.

Compiled by Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.