Don’t assume UNR will have letdown
UNR was one of the nation’s most impressive teams during the first week of the season, thanks to outstanding performances by running back Stefphon Jefferson and quarterback Cody Fajardo.
The Wolf Pack gained a 31-24 road victory over California at the Bears’ renovated Memorial Stadium. UNR, a 12-point underdog, got three rushing touchdowns by Jefferson, who scored the winner with 36 seconds remaining.
When an unheralded team such as UNR gets a big road victory against a Pacific-12 Conference opponent, there’s a tendency for gamblers to look at its next game as a letdown situation. However, that might not be advisable in this instance.
For starters, the Wolf Pack are playing their home opener, and have won 17 of their last 18 games at Mackay Stadium. Also, they will be facing a South Florida team that is dealing with the altitude factor after a long trip to Reno from Tampa.
The Bulls will have their hands full with Fajardo, who completed 25 of 32 passes for 230 yards against Cal. Fajardo also rushed for 97 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries.
UNR has been incredible against the spread as a home favorite since 2004, compiling a 24-10 ATS record. I made the Wolf Pack a 5-point favorite, so I think this is excellent line value with a play on the home team laying only 1 point.
Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
■ Kent State-KENTUCKY (Over 44) – Wildcats quarterback Max Smith was sharp against a stout Louisville defense last week, connecting on 35 of 50 throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Kentucky scored only 14 points because it missed a short field goal and had two sustained drives end on fumbles deep in Cardinals territory.
The Wildcats have an abysmal defense that was gutted for 32 points before Louisville coach Charlie Strong yanked star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with more than four minutes remaining in the third quarter. Expect plenty of points by both teams.
■ Georgia-MISSOURI (Over 54) – The Bulldogs will miss four suspended defensive starters as they face dynamic Missouri quarterback James Franklin. Without those four last week, Buffalo rushed for 199 yards in a 45-23 loss at Georgia. With a pair of top-flight passers in Franklin and Georgia’s Aaron Murray, this should be a high-scoring game.
■ Florida-TEXAS A&M (Under 50½) – Discounting a 48-point outburst at Kentucky, Florida averaged only 16.9 points per game against Southeastern Conference opponents last season. The Gators’ offense looked mediocre last week in a 27-14 win over Bowling Green that was closer than the score.
The Gators lack a proven quarterback, but they have a solid defense with nine returning starters from a unit that ranked eighth nationally. Seven of Florida’s past eight games totaled 48 combined points or less. Texas A&M will be going with freshman Johnny Manziel as its starting quarterback. I made this total 45, and it’s too high in the 50s.
■ Louisiana Tech (-3) over HOUSTON – Without former coach Kevin Sumlin and all-time leading passer Case Keenum, Houston could be in for a long year. The Cougars lost their opener 30-13 as 34½-point home favorites against Texas State.
I believe Louisiana Tech is poised for a big year, and it will have revenge on its mind. After taking a 34-7 third-quarter lead against Houston last season, Keenum rallied the Cougars to a 35-34 comeback victory.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
