Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election took a hit after the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago estate Monday in Palm Beach, Florida.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis briefly replaced the former president as the betting favorite Tuesday to win the 2024 election following the FBI raid, which was part of an investigation into whether Trump took classified records from the White House to his Florida residence.
But by the end of the day, Trump had regained a slight edge over DeSantis on the Smarkets betting exchange, based in the United Kingdom.
Trump has a 22.73 percent chance, which equates to +340, to win again in 2024. DeSantis has a 22.22 percent likelihood of winning, or +350.
“Trump’s potential legal problems had always been factored into his price, but this development must increase the possibility that he won’t even get to the 2024 start line,” Smarkets head of political markets Matthew Shaddick said.
DeSantis has supplanted Trump as the favorite at London-based Ladbrokes sportsbook, where he is +270 to win in 2024 and Trump is the +290 second choice.
A plus sign represents what a bettor would win if they wagered $100. In this case, a bettor would have to wager $100 to win $290 on Trump to win the election.
Trump and DeSantis are 3-1 co-favorites at the U.K.-based BetFair sportsbook.
At Smarkets, President Joe Biden has a 12.2 percent likelihood (+720) of winning re-election. Vice President Kamala Harris has a 5.26 percent chance (18-1), and California Gov. Gavin Newsom has a 4.55 percent chance (22-1).
“The odds of a Biden re-election have not improved,” Shaddick said. “His (Vice President) Kamala Harris isn’t doing any better.”
All betting odds can be converted into an implied chance, or percentage, of something happening, and that is how Smarkets presents its odds.
Betting on elections isn’t allowed at U.S. sportsbooks.