Chip Kelly-coached UCLA overrated before it suspended 6 players
Southern California went 11-3 last season and finished 12th in the final Associated Press Top 25 poll. But when it came to covering the spread, the Trojans were one of the worst college football teams in the country, going 3-10-1 ATS.
Handicapper Bruce Marshall said USC’s crosstown rival, UCLA, might be overvalued this season, with Chip Kelly replacing Jim Mora as Bruins coach.
“UCLA is definitely a candidate to be overrated,” said Marshall (Goldsheet.com). “They’re reacting to Chip too much. I’m not sure he’s got a quarterback who can run the offense he wants to run and their defense was abysmal last year.”
Marshall made his comments before Monday’s report that UCLA has suspended six players for Saturday’s season opener against Cincinnati at the Rose Bowl. The suspensions include Soso Jamabo, the Bruins’ second-leading rusher last season.
Las Vegas sports books reacted to the news by lowering UCLA from a 17-point favorite to a 16-point favorite over the Bearcats. The South Point sports book opened UCLA as a 20-point favorite May 21 and the line was quickly bet down to 17.
“In Chip Kelly’s case, he’s going back to a conference where he had a lot of success in the past,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “Especially if UCLA gets off to a quick start, their numbers will be inflated.”
Kelly went 46-7 in four years as Oregon’s coach before bolting to the NFL for four mostly forgettable seasons.
The Bruins went 6-7 last season and must replace first-round NFL draft pick Josh Rosen at quarterback. Kelly has yet to name his starting quarterback from a group comprised of Michigan transfer Wilton Speight, Bishop Gorman grad and true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and sophomore Devon Modster.
UCLA, which has a season win total of 5½, also must improve on a defense that gave up 36.6 points per game, ranking in the bottom 20 in the nation.
No Thursday buyback
There were big line moves on two of Thursday’s college football games when the South Point first posted the lines in May and the numbers have continued to move in the same direction.
Minnesota opened as a 15-point home favorite over New Mexico State. The line quickly moved to 20 and is now up to 21.
Wake Forest opened as a 13-point road favorite over Tulane. Money on the underdog quickly moved the line to 9 and the number is now 6½.
Power Five vs. field
The South Point sports book needs Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington or Oklahoma to win the CFP championship this season. That’s because bettors are backing the field versus the favorites to win each of the Power Five conferences. The Power Five opened as a minus 500 favorite, with the field a plus 400 underdog. But the number has since been bet down to minus 280/plus 240.
Sunset Station seminar
Sunset Station will host a free NFL handicapping seminar from 6 to 7:30 p.m. Tuesday inside Club Madrid. The event, which is open to the public and will feature free pizza and soft drinks, will be hosted by sports book director Chuck Esposito and Las Vegas radio host Brian Blessing and feature guest handicappers Hank Goldberg, Bruce Marshall, Bernie Fratto and Andy Iskoe.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.