Bettors don’t doubt Tom Brady, Buccaneers after Super Bowl title
Quarterback Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were never favored to win the Super Bowl last season, including being underdogs against Kansas City in the title game.
That’s certainly not the case this season.
The Buccaneers are the +425 favorites at Circa Sports to retain their title. They are 5-1 co-favorites with the Chiefs — whom they beat 31-9 in the Super Bowl — at several sportsbooks.
The best price available on Tampa Bay is 6-1 at BetMGM, which has said the Buccaneers are its biggest Super Bowl liability, with more tickets and money on them than any other team.
Tampa Bay is a strong -285 favorite to win the NFC South after finishing runner-up to New Orleans last season. The Buccaneers are an overwhelming -825 to make the playoffs, and their season win total is 12 (over -115).
Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said he expects that Brady, even at age 44, will keep the Buccaneers hungry for a second straight Lombardi Trophy — and his eighth.
“I don’t really worry too much about work ethic or Super Bowl hangover because they have Tom Brady, and he brings it every single year and he sets an example for everybody else on his team,” Bennett said.
BetMGM reported taking a $5,000 bet to win $70,000 on Brady to win NFL MVP this season at 14-1. He is 12-1 at Circa.
Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said the Buccaneers are extremely strong on both sides of the ball after bringing all their starters back, but they also appear to have less competition this season.
“The other three teams in the division have huge question marks, and that’s why I think they’re an overwhelming favorite,” Esposito said.
Here’s a quick glance at the rest of the division:
New Orleans Saints
— Season win total: 9 (u-140)
— Make playoffs (yes/no): +120/-140
— Super Bowl odds: 40-1
Quarterback Jameis Winston will likely introduce high variance to the Saints’ offense after taking over for the retired Drew Brees.
On one hand, Winston opens up some downfield passing possibilities after Brees was reduced mostly to shorter throws in his final year. But Winston also has been a turnover machine. In his last season as a starter, with Tampa Bay in 2019, Winston threw 33 touchdown passes but also 30 interceptions.
Bennett said he could see the Saints winning 11 games and going back to the playoffs, but he could also see them winning six games amid a barrage of Winston miscues.
Esposito is more optimistic after Winston backed up Brees and learned from coach Sean Payton last season.
“It’s a good spot for him,” Esposito said. “He benefited tremendously from kind of redshirting for a year with the Saints and being able to sit behind Drew Brees and kind of get acclimated to that system and learn it and not just get thrown into it.”
Carolina Panthers
— Season win total: 7½ (o-115)
— Make playoffs (yes/no): +250/-295
— Super Bowl odds: 125-1
The Panthers were competitive in coach Matt Rhule’s first season despite a 5-11 record, with eight of the losses by eight points or fewer. That’s why Bennett is surprised that he can’t find any takers for the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, in comparison to some other long shots.
“I mean, a 7½-win team is below average, but they’ve got a pulse at least,” Bennett said.
Carolina is trying to rejuvenate the career of quarterback Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick by the New York Jets in 2018.
“I really don’t know on Darnold, but I’m not going to say I think he’s a bum,” Bennett said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s good.”
Atlanta Falcons
— Season win total: 7½ (-110)
— Make playoffs (yes/no): +250/-295
— Super Bowl odds: 125-1
The Falcons fired coach Dan Quinn and brought in Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to take over and try to squeeze some life out of what’s left of quarterback Matt Ryan’s career.
“I don’t see the same sort of possibility for upside that the Panthers have,” Bennett said.
Best bet
Panthers over 7½ wins (-105 at Boyd Gaming): A bet fueled by a belief in Rhule and that Darnold was held back by coach Adam Gase and the Jets.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.