Bettors banking on Oklahoma to top win total, return to CFP
Oklahoma has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the past four years and produced the past two Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall NFL draft picks in quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.
Less than a month before the start of the college football season, bettors are banking on the Sooners to have another big year behind QB Jalen Hurts, a graduate transfer from Alabama.
Money has poured into the Westgate sportsbook on Oklahoma to make the CFP, moving its odds from plus 350 to plus 200.
Handicapper Christopher Smith expects the Sooners to return to the CFP and played them at 20-1 in the spring to win the national title. That number is down to 14-1.
“Outside of Clemson, I would say Oklahoma has the easiest path in the country to make the CFP this year,” said Smith (@CFBlocksmith). “If you feel confident they’re going to be in the playoff, there’s pretty good value there at 20-1. I don’t think their offense is going to slide very far.”
The Sooners — one of six teams with a win total of 10 or more — had one of the nation’s worst defenses last season, but Smith expects it to be vastly improved under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, formerly of Ohio State.
“They have to get better on defense almost by running on the field compared to where they were last season,” Smith said. “They may not go undefeated, but I feel like there’s a very, very small chance to them not making the Big 12 championship game.”
Handicapper Paul Stone likes the Sooners to go over their regular-season win total of 10½ (available at minus 120 at William Hill), partly because of several talented returnees on offense and partly because of the weak Big 12 Conference.
“They have benefited from being in the Big 12, which has lacked the last few years other top-level teams,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports), who finished 77-36-6 ATS (68 percent) last season to place third in the Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge contest. “This year, you have Oklahoma at one level, Texas somewhat below Oklahoma at another level and then the other eight teams.
“Other than the Texas game, Oklahoma will be favored by double digits in their other 11 games, and they stand an excellent chance of notching 11 wins or more.”
Stone also likes West Virginia to finish under its win total of 5 after losing quarterback Will Grier and several other key players on offense, as well as second team All-America linebacker David Long.
“On top of that, they have a first-year head coach in Neal Brown and a total of only nine returning starters,” Stone said. “Looking at their schedule, I simply can’t find five wins.”
A Westgate bettor wagered $10,000 on Nebraska to go over 8½ wins, and Caesars Entertainment bettors are backing the Cornhuskers to go over their win total and to win the Big 10 at 10-1 and 8-1 odds.
“Nebraska is the season win total with the biggest handle for the third year in a row,” Caesars risk manager Jeff Davis said. “Their schedule is unbelievably easy, and there’s a lot of hype around (QB) Adrian Martinez.”
Westgate sportsbook manager Ed Salmons also is high on the Huskers and enticed $8,000 in under action on Nebraska before taking the $10,000 bet on the over.
Salmons likes several other win totals, including Brigham Young over 7 (+150), Florida under 9 (-160), Kentucky under 6½ (+120), Maryland under 3½ (+130), Michigan State under 8 (-110), Northwestern under 6 (+110), Southern California over 7 (-120) and Oregon State over 2½ (-150).
“I expect USC to really bounce back,” he said. “If they go 6-6 this year, I’d be shocked. We have them at seven wins, which is probably the lowest number USC has been in years.
“The quarterback last year (JT Daniels) was a true freshman and got a lot better as the year went on. I expect him to grow a lot this year. They’ve got elite athletes. There’s no reason USC isn’t going to be way better.”
Davis said Caesars’ most lopsided win total is on Oregon State, which opened at 2 (under -140) and has been bet to 2½ (over -150). The Beavers, who went 2-10 last season, have the lowest total at the Westgate.
“I really like Oregon State to win three games. I bet them over 2,” Salmons said. “Everything I’ve read about them is they’re dramatically improved.”
CG Technology reported sharp action on Nebraska over 8½, Michigan State under 8, Kentucky under 7, Michigan over 10, Virginia over 7½ and Texas A&M under 7½.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.