Bettor puts $1M on Super Bowl; major wagers move total

The unidentified gambler bet $1 million to win $800,000 on the Eagles on the money line (-125) over the Chiefs in Sunday’s NFL championship game in Glendale, Arizona.

Philadelphia is a consensus 1½-point favorite and the consensus total is 50½.

Kansas City opened as high as -2½ at Circa Sports moments after it beat Cincinnati in the AFC title game on Jan. 29. But the line quickly flipped to the Eagles -2½ before settling at -1½ on Jan. 30. That’s where the number has remained, save for the South Point, which is at -2.

“I wouldn’t expect too much movement on the spread for the next couple of days,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “I think the only thing that may tweak the spread one way or another is maybe if the Chiefs get some more information on how their receivers are. If most of them are playing, that might send it down a tick.

“I make the line a pick, so I think if it goes any way, it should go toward the Chiefs.”

The Eagles account for 74.9 percent of the tickets and 72.2 percent of the handle on bets against the spread at Caesars, which has taken $150,000 wagers on Philadelphia -1½ and Kansas City +1½.

The total opened at 49½ and shot up to 51 last week before dipping to 50 at Caesars, which took a $220,000 wager on under 51. Another bettor placed a $110,000 wager on under 51 and a $220,000 bet on under 50½.

“We’re not going back to 51 again,” Pullen said. “Sometimes you have to test the waters to find that point where the under is going to garner the action. We found that out at 51.

“We have traders that made the total in the low 50s, so it’s not like it was an egregious move. But with the sharps jumping in at that number, that’s probably the cap and you’re probably never going to see that number again.”

The under accounts for 68.3 percent of the handle on the total at Caesars and 50.9 percent of the tickets.

“Usually for big games, the public usually loves betting overs,” Pullen said. “But the last seven playoff games have all gone under, and the last four Super Bowls have gone under, too.

“It doesn’t take that long for them to go from all overs to all unders if that’s what they’re seeing. The betting public is getting more sophisticated as time goes by, and they’re not going to be betting overs as blindly. So maybe it will be a more even split on the total come Super Bowl Sunday.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.