Bet against ‘Cowboy’ in possible UFC swan song in Las Vegas
Following Donald Cerrone’s fifth straight fight without a win, UFC president Dana White said in September that it was time to have a conversation with “Cowboy” about retiring.
Cerrone, the UFC career wins leader with 24, said this week that he was “hurt” by White’s comments. But the 38-year-old also conceded “I am getting old” as he prepared for his fight against Alex Morono in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 24 on Saturday at the Apex.
Cerrone is a -190 favorite at Circa sportsbook after he opened at -135. Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro is backing Morono (+165), who stepped in on short notice to replace Diego Sanchez.
“This is supposedly Cerrone’s retirement fight so the world’s on him,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “He’s 38, he hasn’t won in some time and he was preparing for a different kind of fighter. Cerrone was going to face a short, sawed-off wrestler and Morono is a large, physical striker.
“Not only do I like Morono +165, I also like a little bit of a pinch on Morono to win inside the distance at +325. It might be tough for Morono to win a decision, plus the kid has so much power.”
Here are Finocchiaro’s other best bets:
Rodriguez-Neal parlay, +129
A women’s flyweight bout between Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez was a late replacement for the main event originally scheduled between T.J. Dillashaw and Cory Sandhagen.
Rodriguez is a -200 favorite and Finocchiaro recommends putting her in a parlay with Geoff Neal, a -190 favorite over Neil Magny in a welterweight fight on the main card.
“The women normally fight at 115 pounds but they made it a 125-pound fight because it was short notice,” he said. “For Rodriguez, that’s perfect because she’s 5-(foot)-7 and huge for 115. The fact she can weigh 125 really benefits her, whereas Waterson is 5-(foot)-3 and fights bigger women at 115.
“Magny is the more well-rounded fighter than Neal but he tends to break down against physical, dominating fighters in big situations. Neal is a forward-pressing, pressure power striker. His trajectory is ascending.”
Greene, +165
Finocchiaro is backing Maurice Greene over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a heavyweight bout.
“At one point, de Lima fought at 205 pounds. He weighed in (Friday) at 264 pounds. He’s rotund,” he said. “I think de Lima only has five minutes of the fight until he tuckers out.”
Ferreira, +140
Finocchiaro is banking on Carlos Diego Ferreira over Gregor Gillespie in a lightweight fight. In Gillespie’s last fight in 2019, he suffered a brutal knockout loss to Kevin Lee via kick to his head.
Ferreira missed weight by 4½ pounds Friday, but Gillespie still accepted the fight.
“Ferreira is already the larger man and now he has a further advantage,” he said. “His size makes me think he’s a very live ‘dog.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.