Best bets, games to watch for college football Week 4

Las Vegas Review-Journal

6 years ago

Stanford running back Bryce Love (20) stiff-arms Southern California cornerback Iman Marshall (8) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Stanford wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (19) is dropped by TCU linebacker Ty Summers (42) during the first half of the Alamo Bowl NCAA college football game, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2017, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Stanford wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (19) pulls in a pass in front of TCU cornerback Jeff Gladney (12) for a touchdown during the first half of the Alamo Bowl NCAA college football game, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2017, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Stanford wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (19) stretches out with a pass in front of TCU cornerback Jeff Gladney (12) for a touchdown during the first half of the Alamo Bowl NCAA college football game, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2017, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Stanford running back Bryce Love (20) hangs out on the sidelines with an injury in the first half in an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Jim Gensheimer)

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello is sacked by UC Davis linebacker Mason Moe (34) in the first half in an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Jim Gensheimer)

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello (3) passes against UC Davis in the first half in an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Jim Gensheimer)

FILE – In this Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018, file photo, Stanford running back Bryce Love (20) rushes against Southern California during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif. Stanford plays against Oregon in Eugene on Saturday. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar, File)

FILE – In this Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018, file photo, Stanford running back Bryce Love (20) rushes against Southern California during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif. A couple of Pac-12 stars have a chance to put themselves into the Heisman mix on Saturday night when No. 7 Stanford visits No. 20 Oregon. Love, last year’s Heisman runner-up behind Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield, is already way behind the field in the Heisman race, but the speedster can make up ground in a nationally televised night game. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar, File)

Here are three games to watch Saturday and three best bets for college football Week 4.

Games to watch

Stanford (-2) at Oregon

The Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love” doesn’t apply to Stanford.

A year after running back Bryce Love finished as the Heisman Trophy runner-up, the Cardinal (3-0) have relied on a balanced attack led by quarterback K.J. Costello and wideout J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (7.7 points per game allowed).

The Ducks haven’t played anybody and are coming off a 35-22 home win over San Jose State, arguably the worst team in the country, in which they were 43-point favorites.

“Oregon looks like an overvalued team,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Stanford is steady Eddie.”

Handicapper Paul Stone, off to an 11-4 ATS start in the Review-Journal’s College Challenge, likes the Cardinal to win and cover. Stone (@PaulStoneSports) noted that Oregon’s schedule is rated No. 215 by Jeff Sagarin, who includes FCS teams in his ratings for USA Today.

“I’m concerned about Oregon’s readiness for this talented an opponent,” Stone said.

Texas A&M at Alabama (-26)

The Aggies took Clemson to the wire in a 28-26 loss and are still getting almost four TDs from the rolling Crimson Tide.

“That just goes to show you Alabama’s power rating is through the roof. This is about as high a rated team as I’ve ever seen,” Bogdanovich said. “In the past, they’ve always been a smothering defense and halfway decent offense, but now they’ve got an offense that is literally off the charts to go with the defense. They are in uncharted territory.”

Stone recommends a play on the Crimson Tide in the first half, where they’re 16-point favorites at William Hill. Alabama has outscored its first three foes 117-7 in the first half.

“They’ve come out of the gate and led by at least 28 points in all three of those games,” Stone said.

Texas Christian (-3) at Texas

The Horned Frogs are coming off a physical 40-28 loss to Ohio State, and the Longhorns are off a 37-14 win over Southern California.

But Stone discounts Texas’ win over the struggling Trojans and likes TCU to bounce back and beat the Longhorns for the fifth straight season. The Horned Frogs have outscored Texas 153-33 the last four seasons.

“This is a case of one coach, Gary Patterson, having the Longhorns’ number,” Stone said. “TCU is the better team right now, and coming off a loss will have the Horned Frogs in an especially bad demeanor.”

Best bets

IOWA STATE (-19) over Akron

Handicapper Wes Reynolds is tied with Stone with an 11-4 ATS record and likes the Cyclones to rip the Zips after hard-fought 10-point losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.

Akron is coming off a comeback win at Northwestern in which it scored three defensive TDs.

“That’s so hard to duplicate in back-to-back weeks,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “Now you get an Akron team riding high, and they have to go back on the road. That’s always a tough spot.

“I like Iowa State looking forward to a team it can beat that’s such a drop in class from playing Iowa and Oklahoma.”

IOWA (+3½) over Wisconsin

Reynolds also leans to the Hawkeyes as home underdogs, especially if the line moves to 3½, which it did Friday at CG Technology sports book.

“Iowa has been disrespected this year,” Reynolds said. “They’re getting overlooked.”

The Hawkeyes have won and covered all three games this season. The Badgers are 0-3 ATS.

“Iowa is playing lights out. The home ’dog looks live to me,” Bogdanovich said. “Wisconsin looks like it’s missing something.”

Ohio (+8) over CINCINNATI

Stone said the Bearcats are overrated because of their season-opening win at UCLA and shouldn’t be laying more than a TD to its instate rival, which is coming off a loss at Virginia.

“I had Cincinnati as just a 2½-point favorite. I saw some value when it crossed over 7,” he said. “I look to take teams when they’re off a loss often times. Especially early in the year when they’ve still got their hopes and goals in front of them, I think a team tends to bring forth a stronger collective energy and effort.”

More betting: Follow all of our sports betting coverage online at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.