Best bets for UFC on ESPN 14 card on ‘Fight Island’

Robert Whittaker was riding a nine-fight winning streak before he lost his UFC middleweight title to Israel Adesanya in October.

MMA handicapper Lou Finocchiaro expects Whittaker to get back on track Saturday night in the main event of the UFC on ESPN 14 card in Abu Dhabi.

Whittaker, an Australian, is a -129 favorite over Darren Till at Circa Sports and is one of Finocchiaro’s best bets.

Till is coming off a split-decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in November in his middleweight debut.

“In his lone fight at 185 pounds, he looked stiff and tentative,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “Whittaker is a natural 185-pounder who’s had eight fights at that weight. He’s way more battle-tested against that weight class.”

Finocchiaro attributes Whittaker’s loss to Adesanya mostly to being worn out from a pair of hard-fought five-round battles against Yoel Romero.

“I discard that last loss a little bit,” he said. “Whittaker’s experience and gas tank will overtake a little bit tentative Till.”

Here are Finocchiaro’s other best bets and a half-unit play on a big underdog:

Sobotta (+155) over Oliveira

Peter Sobotta will return to the cage for the first time since 2018 against Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira, who has lost three of his last four fights.

“Cowboy tends to be submitted because he tends to make stupid mistakes and he’s reckless in the Octagon,” he said. “Even though Sobotta has been inactive since 2018, I believe he has the skills in both standup and his ability to submit to make this fight very competitive. I think he surprises Oliveira.”

Herbert (+110) over Trinaldo

Francisco Trinaldo, 41, missed weight for the first time and Finocchiaro believes it was a strategic decision for his fight against 32-year-old Jai Herbert, making his UFC debut.

“At (41), Trinaldo knows he has to take this fight to the floor to have any chance against a man who’s 10 years younger, three inches taller and has length and reach advantages,” he said. “Herbert is uncomfortable on the ground. If he can keep it standing, he’ll be able to dominate Trinaldo on his feet.

“Because it’s a three-round fight, I’ll give the debuting Herbert the youthful advantage to keep the fight standing and work his way to a decision.”

Werdum (+280) over Gustafsson

Finocchiaro recommends a half-unit value play on former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum over Alexander Gustafsson, who weighed in at 240 pounds for his heavyweight debut.

“I believe Werdum should be the underdog, but not this grotesque of an underdog,” he said. “Most people saw his last fight May 9 and he just looked absolutely terrible. You have to be half crazy to consider what we’re doing, but that’s what we’re doing.

“There’s some value on Werdum at (+280). If this fight goes to the floor, it will be Werdum’s fight.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.