Best bets for UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas

Las Vegas Review-Journal

4 years ago

Derrick Lewis reacts while posing atop a scale prior to his heavyweight mixed martial arts bout ... — Derrick Lewis reacts while posing atop a scale prior to his heavyweight mixed martial arts bout against Daniel Cormier during the weigh-ins ahead of UFC 230, Friday, Nov. 2, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Aleksei Oleinik, right, is announced the winner by way of submission against Travis Browne in the UFC 213 heavyweight bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Saturday, July 8, 2017. Erik Verduzco Las Vegas Review-Journal @Erik_Verduzco

UFC lightweight Beneil Dariush on the scale at the T-Mobile Arena for the UFC 216 ceremonial weigh-ins in Las Vegas, Friday, Oct. 6, 2017. Heidi Fang Las Vegas Review-Journal @HeidiFang

UFC heavyweight Aleksei Oleinik has claimed 46 of his 59 victories by submission, which is why he’s known as “The Boa Constrictor.”

But handicapper Lou Finocchiaro expects Derrick Lewis to knock the head off the snake early in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday at the Apex facility in Las Vegas.

Lewis, who weighed in at 265 pounds Friday, opened as a -280 favorite over Oleinik, who weighed in at 227. But the line has been bet down to -195 at Circa.

“I rarely take the favorite, but there’s value on Lewis at that price,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “The public seems to think Oleinik is going to be able to run around and buy enough time to tire the big man out, drag him to the floor and submit him.

“But the Russian is the much smaller man, well older (at 43) and, to top it all off, he has a glass jaw. He’s in there fighting the fourth-ranked heavyweight, a huge, powerful man who only has one trick, and that’s to hit you and knock you out.”

Finocchiaro also is banking on the bout to go under 1½ rounds (-110). He expects Lewis to end it quickly.

“I believe Lewis is going to rush right out there and try to knock Oleinik out,” he said. “With two huge men in the smaller cage, engagement is going to be more prevalent because of the lack of space.”

Here are Finocchiaro’s other two best bets:

Holtzman (+165) over Dariush

Finocchiaro said his best bet on the card is Scott Holtzman over Beneil Dariush in a lightweight fight on the main card.

“Holtzman is an ex-hockey player who’s tough as nails, very athletic and really improving as a striker,” he said. “In every UFC fight he’s had, he’s never been finished. Like Lewis, Holtzman must keep it on his feet. If Dariush gets it to the floor, he’ll have the advantage. But it’s my estimation that Holtzman is too strong and his footwork and striking are too refined.

Jaynes (+106) over Tucker

Justin Jaynes knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into his UFC debut in June. Finocchiaro likes Jaynes to make it two wins in a row against Gavin Tucker in their featherweight fight on the preliminary card.

“Tucker has been very inactive with three fights the last three years. He has a tendency to get hit. His success has been against relatively mediocre competition,” he said. “Jaynes is the taller fighter, longer fighter and I believe the more explosive fighter. He’s coming off that impressive debut win and has got the momentum as well.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.