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Best bets for PGA Tour’s BMW Championship

Updated August 25, 2020 - 1:23 pm

Dustin Johnson set a PGA Tour record for lowest score in three consecutive rounds when he shot 60, 64 and 63 in the final 54 holes of The Northern Trust.

Johnson dominated the tournament en route to an 11-stroke win and rewarded bettors who backed him at 20-1 odds.

Handicapper Wes Reynolds picked Johnson in the Review-Journal for his third outright winner since the PGA Tour restart June 11.

Johnson is the 8-1 favorite to win the BMW Championship, the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs that features the top 70 in the point standings and tees off Thursday at Olympia Fields near Chicago.

Jon Rahm is the 9-1 second choice at the Westgate, followed by Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 12-1 and Xander Schauffele at 14-1. Tiger Woods is 40-1.

“Tiger’s getting some money,” Westgate vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said. “Right now, he’s our largest liability.”

Reynolds (@WesReynolds1), co-host of VSiN’s golf betting show “Long Shots,” and Sherman like Schauffele as one of their best bets. He was quickly bet down from 18-1.

Xander Schauffele, 14-1 (at Westgate)

“X made the cut on the number last week and then shot 67-67 on the weekend,” Reynolds said. “He rates third for greens in regulation, fourth in scrambling and fifth in par-4 scoring average, which should all matter this week.”

Jon Rahm, 10-1 (at Circa)

Sherman (@golfodds) also likes Rahm.

“I’ve been on Schauffele recently. He’s just solid all the time. Even when he’s having an off week, he still finishes in the top 20,” he said. “(Schauffele and Rahm) starting out in a condensed field of just 70 golfers, you should have a decent shot at one of those two being around Sunday to give yourself a chance.”

Here are Reynolds’ other best bets:

Collin Morikawa, 20-1 (at Circa)

The Las Vegas resident missed the cut at The Northern Trust after his first major win at the PGA Championship.

“Although he’s still just 23, Morikawa has already shown that he can respond to adversity. He missed his first cut as a professional at The Travelers and then went on to win the Workday two weeks later,” Reynolds said. “While not a big hitter, the PGA Champion’s accuracy and ball striking more than compensates for any lacking distance.”

Jason Day, 30-1 (at Westgate)

After four straight top seven finishes, Day missed the cut in Boston.

“Everyone else has abandoned ship, but I’m going to stay on for another go-around, as he will likely be off everyone’s radar this week,” Reynolds said.

Matthew Wolff, 43-1 (at Circa)

“Why not take the most recent winner in the field on this course?” Reynolds said. “Wolff won here at Olympia Fields in 2018 in the fall season before winning the 2019 NCAA Division I individual championship.

“Wolff is one of the bigger hitters on tour and should have shorter yardages on the two par 5s and the long par 4s than most of the field.”

Cameron Champ, 89-1 (at Circa)

“Like Wolff, Champ won the Fighting Illini Invitational at Olympia Fields in 2016 while playing for Texas A&M,” Reynolds said. “A couple of PGA Championship contenders from three weeks ago went on to have great weeks at last week’s Northern Trust (Johnson and Scottie Scheffler) and perhaps Champ is ready for one this week.”

Maverick McNealy, 250-1 (at Westgate)

“Long bombs don’t typically win these events, but I like a good narrative play sometimes,” Reynolds said. “The narrative here is that McNealy won twice on this course as a college player at Stanford. Also, the last major pro golf event held at Olympia Fields was the 2017 women’s PGA Championship, and that was won by Danielle Kang, who is McNealy’s girlfriend.

“He’s probably a better prop (top 10, top 20) play than an outright.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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