Best bets for another ‘Wild West’ college bowl season
New Wisconsin football coach Luke Fickell was asked this week who will start at quarterback for the Badgers in the bowl game against Oklahoma State after their regular QB entered the transfer portal.
Fickell shrugged, unable to offer any insight into the process that will be handled by the holdover coaching staff leading up to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Dec. 27.
“That won’t be my decision, let’s be honest with you,” he told reporters.
Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall said Monday he plans to enter the transfer portal but also will play for the Chanticleers in the Birmingham Bowl against East Carolina on Dec. 27.
Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed removed his name from the portal this week and said he intends to play in the New Orleans Bowl against South Alabama on Wednesday.
“It’s like the Wild West right now,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
That uncertainty has become the new norm for bowl season, when handicapping games becomes more about what you know rather than how teams might match up statistically.
The bowl schedule begins Friday morning when Miami (Ohio) and Alabama-Birmingham meet in the Bahamas Bowl, one of 43 games on the schedule.
“Certainly, I have become more conservative the last couple of years, even more so this year, in my approach to betting (bowl) games,” said professional handicapper Paul Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Typically, I’m probably more of a statistical, fundamental handicapper. But that’s not as critical or as prevalent in the process for bowl games because it’s more informational. It’s trying to determine who is playing and who’s not.”
Despite the added difficulties that come with bowl season, Stone had two plays he liked from Saturday’s schedule.
Fresno State is a 3-point favorite over Washington State in the LA Bowl, and Stone is siding with the favorite.
The Bulldogs enter on an eight-game winning streak and are averaging 37.2 points per game since quarterback Jake Haener returned from injury Oct. 29. Washington State allowed more than 700 yards of total offense in its Apple Cup loss to Washington and will be without three of its top six tacklers for the bowl game.
“That defense will have even fewer hands on deck,” Stone said. “From a motivational angle, a team from the Mountain West getting an opportunity to play a Pac-12 school like Washington State, I think the motivational edge would seem to lie with Fresno in this matchup.”
Stone also liked Southern Mississippi as a 7-point favorite over Rice in the LendingTree Bowl.
These teams were foes in Conference USA until this season, and Southern Mississippi lost to the Owls the past two meetings. But Rice enters on a three-game losing streak and only reached a bowl game because of its Academic Progress Rate score.
“I think Southern Miss clearly has the better defense, far superior to Rice,” Stone said. “I think they will have the motivational edge in their corner.”
Salmons recommends a common-sense approach to bowl games.
For instance, he figures Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr., both projected as top-four picks in the NFL draft, will sit out against Kansas State and pounced on the Wildcats +6. The Crimson Tide are now 3-point favorites at the SuperBook.
“I think the most interesting bowl game of all is the Louisville-Cincinnati game,” Salmons said, noting Louisville’s former coach, Scott Satterfield, was hired at Cincinnati and will not take part in the bowl preparation. “It’s crazy. Try to find an angle on that game, my goodness.”
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.