Aces sizable betting underdogs to Liberty in WNBA semifinals
The Aces are six wins away from their third straight championship, but they are sizable betting underdogs to the New York Liberty in the WNBA semifinals.
The series tips off Sunday at Barclays Center.
The Liberty are -170 favorites at the Westgate SuperBook to advance after the book took sharp money on them at -160. The Aces are +150 series underdogs in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, which they won in four games.
New York has home-court advantage this time around after leading the league with a 32-8 record in the regular season.
“That’s a big thing in a best-of-five series, home court,” SuperBook WNBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “I think you’re going to see a really focused effort from the Liberty here to try to not fall into a 1-0 hole.
“We saw in the last round where home teams swept 2-0 in each series. It’s such a short series, if you lose one of your home games, it’s really an uphill battle.”
Series history
The Liberty are 4-point favorites in Game 1 and the total is 163½. The Aces are +170 on the money line.
“A lot of people think the Liberty are the better team,” Sherman said. “But the Aces at the plus price, being an underdog like that, being the two-time defending champs, I think there’s going to be a lot of two-way support at that number.”
The Aces lost all three regular-season meetings with the Liberty while going 1-2 against the spread.
They lost and failed to cover both games at home. They lost 90-82 as a 2½-point favorite June 15 and were defeated 79-67 as a 3½-point favorite Aug. 17. The Aces lost 75-71 at New York on Sept. 8 but covered as 9½-point underdogs with WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson out with a leg injury.
“I know their last meeting was close and they had a chance to win without A’ja Wilson. But the last couple of years, it’s been a tightly-contested series,” Sherman said. “It’s been a challenge. The Liberty have a little bit more scoring depth than the Aces do.”
New York had a nine-point halftime lead at home in Game 4 of the Finals last season, but lost 70-69 to end the series. The Aces closed things out without injured starters Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes.
“The Aces were fortunate to win that game without Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes,” Sherman said. “But if they had lost that, they would’ve been underdogs at home in Game 5.”
The Aces will again be led by their Core Four of Wilson, Gray, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum.
“It’s good to have Chelsea Gray playing at the level she is, but if you have an off night from either Jackie Young or Kelsey Plum, then it makes it challenging on the rest of the unit,” Sherman said. “You need, really, both of them to be in sync to have this team clicking.”
Strong handle
The SuperBook has liability only on the Liberty, the +130 favorites to win it all. The Aces are tied for the +280 second choice with the Minnesota Lynx, while the Connecticut Sun are the 9-1 long shots.
“We do really well with the Aces,” Sherman said. “There’s been money on the Liberty all season. The one thing that’s been tremendous is our handle on the futures this year. It was over-the-top how much more we wrote than previous years on the WNBA.
“This whole Caitlin Clark emergence, it’s brought not only more eyeballs to it, but more wagering. Any time the viewership numbers go up, people want to be involved from a betting standpoint.”
Individual player props have become more popular this season. The SuperBook has posted plenty for Sunday’s game, including Wilson’s total points (24½) and rebounds (10½), Gray’s assists (5½) and Plum’s made 3-pointers (2½).
New York star Breanna Stewart’s points are 19½ and her rebounds are 9½. Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu’s points are 17½, her assists are 5½ and her made 3-pointers are 2½.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.