Rep. Dina Titus thinks Republicans will sweep Nevada’s congressional races next year — including her own district. The blame, she says, lies with legislative Democrats.
“I totally got f—ed by the Legislature on my district,” she said Wednesday at an AFL-CIO town hall, as reported by the Nevada Current. “I’m sorry to say it like that, but I don’t know any other way to say it.”
So much for politicians not telling the public what they really believe. But she was only getting warmed up, offering this frank assessment of next fall’s election.
“Republicans are going to turn out, and they are excited,” she said. “Democrats are kind of ‘meh, I have to pay more gas prices.’ Hispanics aren’t going to want to turn out if we don’t get something for immigration. I mean, why would they?”
No, that’s not the script of new Republican campaign commercial, but it could be. Every time voters go to the grocery store or gas station, they’re reminded of the terrible job President Joe Biden has done. That’s a tough environment for Democrats to run in, which is why Virginia went red last month. New Jersey almost did as well.
Titus, however, survived a similar red wave in 2014. That’s because her 1st Congressional District, which includes the urban core of the Las Vegas Valley, favors Democrats by 23.4 percentage points.
In contrast, the Democratic registration advantage in CD3 and CD4 is 1.9 percentage points and 7.7 percentage points respectively. Democrat Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford currently hold those seats.
You expected legislative Democrats to take a few of Titus’ Democrats to help shore up those districts. You didn’t expect them to take enough voters to leave Titus vulnerable. But they did. The new CD1 leaves Titus with a 13-point registration advantage. Biden beat Donald Trump by 8.5 percentage points in that new district. If Nevada sees a 12-point shift to Republicans — like Virginia did — Titus loses.
The new CD3 gives Lee an 8-percentage-point Democrat advantage in registration. But if a red-wave comes, both Lee and Horsford would be swept out of office, too. Titus thinks all three of them will be looking for work soon.
Democrats have three congressional seats “that are very likely going down,” Titus said.
This is especially perplexing, because Titus is — or was — an ally of Gov. Steve Sisolak. She even endorsed him in his primary. Apparently Sisolak’s loyalty leaves much to be desired.
You have to wonder if ambitious legislative leaders want current Democrats to lose so they can run in 2024.
Republicans aren’t guaranteed to win, of course. For one, candidates will matter. On paper, Republicans have some good options. Carolina Serrano is a Colombian American who did Hispanic outreach for Trump. She’s running in CD1 along with retired Army Col. Mark Robertson. April Becker is a lawyer who looks formidable in CD3. Air Force veteran Sam Peters lost in the CD4 primary in 2020. He’s running again along with former world champion boxer Jessie Vargas.
Republican primary voters should vet these candidates well. The primary winners have a good chance of joining Congress, per no less an authority than Titus herself.