Knock, knock! Who’s there?

For the parties, that means signing up and training precinct captains to run the meetings. For candidates, it means getting field organizers out into the neighborhoods with voter registration lists to literally entice people out of their homes to support their choice.

But one of the biggest unknowns that will soon creep into the process is Nevada’s foreclosure crisis.

Walk through your own neighborhood and count the “for sale” signs. Better yet, see who’s moved in around the corner.

Jeremy Aguero, principal of Applied Analysis, told state legislators Monday that nearly 60 percent of homes in foreclosure are not occupied by their owners. Some have been purchased by speculators and about 11 percent are being rented.

Chances are, the voter rolls are in for a dramatic upheaval.

Roughly 40 houses go into foreclosure each day in the greater Las Vegas Valley. And while Aguero’s firm has a new analysis suggesting a rebound is likely in 2009, when $36 billion in Strip development comes online, there’s no short-term end to the crisis.

Not only is this Nevada’s first try at an early caucus, this is a state in which transiency (both in and out) has always stymied some grass-roots organization efforts.

Throw foreclosures into the mix and you’ve got a conundrum.

There are currently more than 27,000 houses on the resale market. Many of those homeowners who were registered to vote have moved. Many of the people who are renting those homes may not be registered.

The state Democratic Party is using the number of registered voters as of Oct. 31 to plan its caucus. Delegates have been awarded based on the numbers of voters in each precinct on that day. Still, any eligible participant can show up on Jan. 19, 2008, register as a Democrat, and vote for a presidential candidate.

A good precinct captain may find dozens of people in his neighborhood that aren’t on the rolls. A good campaign likely has better voter records than anything kept by the registrar or secretary of state.

For Republicans, the scenario will be less up in the air. They cut off registration for the caucus on Dec. 19. If you’re not a registered Republican by then, you can’t take part in the caucus.

The foreclosure crisis won’t just impact grass-roots efforts to reach out to voters, it may add another reason for some folks to sit out. A weak economy can be a great motivator for the electorate (think Clinton-Bush 1992), but it also stretches some people so thin they’re too consumed with personal financial issues to bother finding out about the different candidates.

“I’ve got rent to pay, I don’t have time for all that,” said Dennis Arroyo, who moved into his home in Las Vegas on Dec. 1. Arroyo is living with his sister, the homeowner, to help defray her expenses. “She’s got an adjustable rate and is really worried,” Arroyo said. “I gave up my apartment in California to help her.”

Arroyo said he’s been a registered Democrat in the past but is too new to the state to get involved in the caucus. “There’s too much else going on,” Arroyo said.

If he were going to caucus, Arroyo said he’d probably vote for Barack Obama “just to get some diversity.”

This week, two Democratic presidential candidates officially weighed in on the mortgage crisis, with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson calling it “the Katrina of the financial world.”

Richardson called for a rate freeze for the worst of the adjustable rate mortgages and offered bankruptcy protection for primary homes. New Mexico has one of the nation’s lowest foreclosure rates, in part because of 2003 legislation which limited rates and points and prohibited lending without considering ability to pay.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has called for a 90-day foreclosure moratorium and a five-year freeze on adjustable rates.

Nevada has a staggering 6,000 foreclosures “in the pipeline,” according to Aguero. By comparison, Iowa has had 7,500 all year. Yet the housing crisis doesn’t resonate as an issue here. Voters are still most concerned about Iraq, immigration, health care.

It’s unclear whether Richardson’s plan, which also includes reform of the bankruptcy laws Congress enacted two years ago, will have any traction.

Clinton trots out an issue a week, every week. Now we can add mortgage foreclosure to the list of issues for which she’s got a plan. Meanwhile, her local campaign is undoubtedly struggling with the issue in a more basic manner of trying to figure out who’s living where.

Doug Duncan, economist for the national Mortgage Bankers Association, told lawmakers at an interim subcommittee meeting Monday that he expects the crisis to begin to lift next October. Too late for the caucus, but just in time for the general.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.