In Nevada, Hillary steamrolling Democratic foes

Whether its the powerful Culinary union waiting on its endorsement in January’s Nevada Democratic caucus or Latino voters seeking to nominate one of their own, the interests have said they wanted to watch how the polling numbers moved.

So far — if a recent Review-Journal survey is any indication — the only number moving is Clinton’s, whose support is now up to 51 percent among Democrats.

Meanwhile, despite making his 17th trip to Nevada last week, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson’s Nevada numbers have dipped from their almost-double-digit high to an also-ran 5 percent.

“We got three months to go, and you guys are already crowning winners,” Richardson told reporters on a conference call last week to unveil his education plan. “Wait till I make my moves.”

One of the problems with the early calendar: Even in Nevada everyone is expecting more — and expecting it sooner.

“A few months ago I was an anyone-but-Hillary voter,” said Julie Cash, a 19-year-old college student who plans to register as a Democrat for the caucus. “The more I wait on the other candidates to impress me, the less they do.”

Cash said the Clinton campaign has called her house about four times this year and appears to be the most organized. “Now I think nobody but Hillary can get it done, either here or nationally,” she said.

A bandwagon is a fun thing to ride, especially if your team has a deep enough roster.

Richardson and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama have each recently expanded their operations in Nevada. So maybe there is still time to “make a move.”

But the calendar is growing short for the key Culinary endorsement, which could be a poll neutralizer.

Obama’s campaign learned its all-buzz, no-honey approach wasn’t working, so they recently unveiled specific plans dealing with the economy and the middle class. The lack of specificity in other categories, however, leaves voters with little more than platitudes such as “pay teachers more” and “support teachers.”

Richardson’s education proposal sounds more specific, but really isn’t.

He would scrap No Child Left Behind and replace it with some other national education standard to be developed by the proverbial blue-ribbon committee. He wants to emphasize math and science, pay teachers $40,000 to start and pay two years of college tuition for students who agree to one year of community service.

He estimated his plan would cost $60 billion and that he would pay for it by getting rid of outdated weapons systems and eliminating rip-off college loans.

Richardson said his new national education program would contain testing and accountability, but neither merit pay nor a voucher system — two surefire ways for public schools to get better — would be included.

“I don’t support merit pay,” he said. “I don’t think it works. I’d support loan forgiveness and bonuses for teachers that move into some of the weaker schools.”

In response to a question about the Nevada State Education Association’s proposed gaming tax increase, Richardson said: “I don’t think we need to raise taxes. I’m a tax cutter. You’ve got to reorder priorities.”

He then talked about how his education proposal wouldn’t result in higher taxes.

Later, an aide clarified that Richardson had yet to take a position on the NSEA’s gaming tax proposal.

Voters who look at John Edwards’ proposals are not left with as many questions. Whether it’s education or health care or the environment, Edwards’ policies trump what’s proposed by the rest of the field.

Yet the voters polled by the Review-Journal still don’t seem impressed. Perhaps his real Nevada strategy is to win Iowa and hope the momentum pulls up his polling here. He’s currently even with Obama and within striking distance of the rising Clinton in Iowa, according to a new poll by the Des Moines Register.

But the fact that Edwards is no longer leading in Iowa despite pulling staff from Nevada to work there does not speak well for his Silver State strategy.

And while organization is critical in a caucus, it’s hard to see how the large staffs here for Obama and Richardson are contributing to the grass-roots efforts.

Obama announced last week that he was adding staff in Nevada and had about 50 people and four campaign offices. I’m sure they’ve been doing something.

Richardson has about 30 staffers here, according to the campaign. And he’s trending down.

Clinton, who’s got three offices and “dozens” of staffers (the campaign won’t divulge an exact amount), is moving the right way in the polls even as Obama and Edwards sharpen their criticism of her. Ray Martinez is an auto mechanic who told me he wanted to vote for Richardson.

“He’s got experience,” Martinez said, ticking off jobs from the governor’s impressive political resume. “I’m busy and I usually work Saturdays. I can’t take time out to go to caucus if I don’t think he has a chance.”

There may be 90 days to go before Nevada’s caucus. There may be an unknown universe of voters who will participate. A strong second-place performance in Iowa (and perhaps New Hampshire) could boost someone’s status here.

But many Democrats are getting comfortable with that air of inevitability. And the ones who aren’t may not even show up.

Erin Neff’s column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.