Tariff talks between US, Mexico to continue Thursday

The possibility of new tariffs on Mexican goods set to begin Monday still hangs like thick smoke over the Mexican economy and the talks designed to resolve the issue.

About an hour after the meeting apparently ended, President Donald Trump tweeted that talks would resume Thursday.

“Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico &the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform,” Trump tweeted.

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….talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 5, 2019

It was another moment of drama in a game of chicken during which Trump often seemed to be playing against himself.

Last Thursday, Trump announced on Twitter that he was invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose 5 percent tariffs on all Mexican imports as of June 10 — and that the tariffs would increase by 5 percent at the beginning of every subsequent month until they topped off at 25 percent in October.

“If the illegal migration is alleviated through effective actions taken by Mexico, to be determined in our sole discretion and judgment, the tariffs will be removed. If the crisis persists, however, the tariffs will be raised to 10 percent on July 1, 2019,” Trump said in a statement.

A familiar guessing game in Washington followed the announcement. Was this Trump flexing his muscles to squeeze serious concessions from Mexico, which Trump believes could do more to stanch the flow of Central American migrants? Or was Trump putting on a show to assure his voter base that he is trying to do something about what even the New York Times has described as “the escalating humanitarian crisis at the Southern border”?

On Tuesday as Trump was in London, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that he believed Trump would not “actually go through with the tariffs.”

Trump responded with a late-night tweet that dismissed Schumer as “a Creep,” and maintained that he was not bluffing.

During a bilateral meeting Wednesday with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, Trump told reporters he believed Mexico wants “to do something. I think they want to make a deal.”

Earlier, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNN the new tariffs “may not have to go into effect, precisely because we have the Mexicans’ attention.”

Some 133,000 migrants were arrested at the border with Mexico in the month of May — the highest monthly number in seven years. That number included more than 11,000 unaccompanied children.

After the meeting, Ebrard told reporters it was “a good meeting” that focused on immigration, not tariffs.

Former U.S. ambassador to Mexico Earl Anthony Wayne told the Review-Journal, “There’s not much that came out of this so far,” but it’s encouraging that the Mexicans said it was a “cordial, respectful meeting” and talks will resume Thursday.

Last week, Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan laid out three areas in which Mexico could improve to avoid the tariffs: securing the border with Guatemala and at chokepoints leading into Mexico; shutting down transnational criminal organizations; and offering asylum in the “first safe country” migrants arrive in — which would not be the United States.

Mark Krikorian of the pro-enforcement Center for Immigration Studies predicted that “it’s possible Mexico’s going to play ball” in at least the first two areas.

If a deal is not reached, Krikorian added, higher tariffs eventually could stoke migration from Mexico when, “Mexico becoming a first-world country” should be a top national security priority for Washington.

Contact Debra J. Saunders at dsaunders@reviewjournal.com or 202-662-7391. Follow @DebraJSaunders on Twitter.