No mystery which Democrat will get the nod, but GOP field is wide open

It’s the place with more drama (but far fewer votes cast) than the “American Idol” finales, as presidential wannabes within both parties struggle to be the top dogs in the Democratic and Republican caucuses.

Iowa’s the place where winners get momentum and losers realize they may have to change their strategy to bootstrap themselves up in the next two contests: New Hampshire on Tuesday and Nevada on Jan. 19.

I predict now that whomever the Culinary union backs will win the Democratic primary in Nevada, just because the union has the numbers and the organization. On the Republican side, I haven’t a clue who will win.

Our caucus is 16 days away. Today’s the day for Iowans to flex their muscle.

Speaking of muscle, the biggest and most powerful newspaper in Iowa, the Des Moines Register, in mid-December endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Sen. John McCain on the Republican side. Four years ago, the paper endorsed Sen. John Edwards for president, but today its editors don’t like Edwards’ “harsh, anti-corporate rhetoric.”

The Register’s endorsement said Sen. Barack Obama “inspired our imaginations. But it was Clinton who inspired our confidence. Each time we met, she impressed us with her knowledge and her competence.”

On the GOP side, the newspaper gave the nod to McCain saying he, more than any of the others, “has the tested leadership, in matters foreign and domestic. McCain is most ready to lead America in a complex and dangerous world and to rebuild trust at home and abroad by inspiring confidence in his leadership.”

But the newspaper’s most recent polls, published New Year’s Day, show Iowa voters ignoring its endorsements. The polls show Obama leading Clinton by 7 points, 32 percent to 25 percent. Among Republicans, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 6 points, 32 percent to 26 percent. McCain is in third place with 13 percent.

In Iowa, you have to be a registered Democrat or Republican to participate, but you can change your party registration on the way into the caucus. That gives independents the chance to have a stronger voice, if they’re wiling to change their registration.

Obama’s new strength in the polls is credited partly to support from those independent voters.

Nevada’s independent voters might have a stronger voice too because Democrats will have same-day and on-site caucus registration. Nevada Republicans take a sterner view. You must have been a registered Republican for 30 days before you can participate in the GOP caucus.

New CNN polls say it’s a dead heat between Clinton and Obama and Romney and Huckabee, disagreeing with the Iowa newspaper’s polls.

By the end of today, you’ll know the winners, and the candidates will be heading toward the next snowy battle ground — New Hampshire. (If nothing else, when they pounce on Nevada, the weather will be friendlier and easier to navigate, with fewer chances of events being canceled because of bad weather. And perhaps when the national news media make it here, they’ll be in a more amenable mood, too.)

Meanwhile, I continue asking people whether they’re going to caucus, and most of the time I get a negative shake of the head. I’m still getting questions about when it is and how the caucus works.

The Democrats are dropping their mailers this week to let people know where to go to caucus, and the Republican mailers go out next week. Both parties also have easy-to-use Web sites where you can put in your address and find out where to go on caucus day: Nvdemscaucus.com and Nvgopcaucus.com.

Once the Culinary announces its endorsement to its 60,000 members, even though not all are registered voters and not all will participate, the winner of Nevada’s Democratic primary will be obvious, leaving only the Nevada Republicans’ choice as a mystery.

I say that not to discourage turnout for the Democratic caucus, but because it’s true, and the candidates know it’s true. Watch to see whether Democratic candidates who don’t get the nod lose interest in Nevada once the union goes public.

On the other hand, maybe in that 11-day window between New Hampshire and Nevada, Huckabee will finally find Nevada Republicans worth wooing.

Jane Ann Morrison’s column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0275.