Aztecs’ notoriety spreads
Even in the Internet age, some good stories are slow to spread. This one comes from the southwest corner of the country, where Kawhi Leonard is turning heads toward San Diego State.
If you’re looking for high-quality college basketball, you look to Tobacco Road and the Midwest. Not to a campus close to Tijuana and not to a conference with minimum TV exposure.
It sometimes takes too long for the national media to figure out what we already know out here, but the Mountain West Conference is tough at the top.
In this week’s Associated Press Top 25, you’ll find San Diego State (No. 14), Brigham Young (18) and UNLV (20). New Mexico was ranked for most of last season and is pretty good again.
As the season continues, more writers will realize it. But the Aztecs, Cougars and Rebels (all 9-0) are no longer under-the-radar teams to bettors and oddsmakers.
“San Diego State is a monster,” Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello said. “After that Gonzaga game, they have not let up.”
Leonard, a 6-foot-7-inch sophomore forward, is the lead monster, and he’s headed for the NBA soon. Leonard is averaging 16.7 points and 9.6 rebounds and has extended his jumper to 3-point range.
The Aztecs were 5-point favorites in their 77-57 victory over California on Wednesday. That could be the last bargain point spread on San Diego State for quite awhile.
The NFL is the wagering monster for Las Vegas sports books but has limited options and airtight lines, and few bettors can beat it consistently. (Did you lay 3 points with the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday?) College basketball is not easy, either, but it’s a game that serious bettors can beat with hundreds of teams on the board.
“When there is so much for us to put up, you pick your spots,” Avello said. “When you put up 75 games, a person just has to find one or two they’re interested in, or find the weak spots, according to their opinion.”
Avello is opening overnight college basketball lines by 5 p.m. each day. It’s a challenging task, and he gets help from one outside consultant. The South Point sports book also posts overnight lines.
“It does get difficult sometimes, especially (for) Saturdays,” Avello said. “I like to get another opinion, too. Doing it on your own, you’re not as solid. It’s nice to bounce what you have off someone else.”
Avello said he projects UNLV to be about a 3-point underdog at Louisville on Saturday. It’s the first time this season the Rebels will be cast in the underdog role.
“The Rebels are a pretty quality team, a notch better than what I thought,” Avello said. “I don’t think a lot of people see Louisville as a top 25 team right now, but you’ve got to think there’s a little more motivation on their side. You’ve also got to respect that home court.”
In combination with Avello and handicapper Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet and VegasInsider.com, I’ve put together these lists of the most overrated and underrated teams one month into the season:
n Overrated — Arizona State (3-4 straight up, 0-7 against the spread), Gonzaga (4-4, 2-4 ATS), Illinois State (6-3, 1-7 ATS), Santa Clara (4-4, 0-6 ATS), Texas Tech (5-5, 1-7 ATS) and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-5 ATS).
n Underrated — Alabama-Birmingham (7-2, 8-1 ATS), Arizona (8-1, 7-1 ATS), Massachusetts (7-2, 4-0 ATS), Missouri State (6-2, 6-1 ATS) and Washington State (6-1, 5-1 ATS).
On Tobacco Road, North Carolina appears phony. Top-ranked Duke has blown away opponents and covered big numbers, but the Blue Devils suffered a blow when star freshman point guard Kyrie Irving was lost indefinitely to a toe injury.
Second-ranked Ohio State and freshman Jared Sullinger are legit, and I’m a bigger believer in No. 3 Pittsburgh.
Results in November and December can be deceiving. Several teams are flashing impressive records full of empty wins against weak-sister opposition. To get a truer measure of a team’s strength, how does it perform on the road?
San Diego State (7-1 ATS) has four true road wins, and the 13 teams ranked higher in the AP poll entered Wednesday with five total true road wins. The Aztecs should be 17-0, or at least 16-1, when they host UNLV on Jan. 12.
Too much hype can be hazardous to the mental health of a college team. The hype is headed San Diego State’s way, and the betting lines are about to get inflated.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
