Well-armed Phillies, reloaded Red Sox set to shine
As far as dynamic duos go, Philadelphia Phillies pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee could be as entertaining to watch as "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid."
Halladay and Lee are perfect complementary partners capable of wreaking havoc on the major leagues. Butch and Sundance robbed banks and trains and went out in a blaze of glory. The Phillies, who went to the bank for $120 million to sign Lee, are the World Series favorites at 5-2 odds.
But champions are not crowned at the end of spring training. This is the party after the wedding, when almost everyone is drunk with optimism. Whether it’s marriage or a marathon baseball season, be warned about the slippery slope ahead.
The Phillies already face internal issues, including an injury to star second baseman Chase Utley and a shaky bullpen, and defending champion San Francisco and division rival Atlanta represent just a couple of the obstacles in the National League.
"The Phillies have got the names. Halladay is the best pitcher in the game, and Lee is not far behind," said Dave Cokin, ESPN Radio host and longtime Las Vegas handicapper. "But I think the Braves are going to beat the Phillies."
If no NL team can knock off Philadelphia, an American League monster will be waiting. Normally, the New York Yankees are the first choice. But not this year.
"Boston is the best team in baseball going in," Cokin said. "The lineup is scary. It’s the best lineup I’ve seen in a long time."
The big-spending Red Sox reloaded, adding outfielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to a lineup already featuring Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.
The starting rotation — Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka — is just as solid. No team is perfect, but Boston comes close, and Terry Francona is an elite manager.
At the Las Vegas Hilton, the Phillies have the majors’ highest regular-season win total at 96½. The Red Sox (95½) and Yankees (91½) are close behind. Boston is a good bet to top that number and cash in on its 4-1 odds to win the World Series.
"I’m a Yankees fan, but I’ve already made my World Series bet on the Red Sox," said handicapper Andy Iskoe (Thelogicalapproach.com). "I could see a significant fall for the Yankees."
When veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte retired two months ago, it was a blow to the Yankees. Their rotation starts with CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes and is followed by question marks. But offense should not be a problem, Mariano Rivera remains a lock as a closer, and Rafael Soriano, who saved 45 games for Tampa Bay last season, was signed as a high-priced setup man.
Iskoe envisions the Yankees slipping to the mid-80s in wins. Cokin disagreed, saying, "The Yankees will be fine."
In the AL Central, the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota and Detroit figure to fight to the finish, because the Central seems to be decided in the final week every year. The White Sox signed slugger Adam Dunn, whose home run total (35½) is on the Hilton’s five pages of propositions.
Iskoe’s top win-total play is in the AL West, where he sees the Los Angeles Angels surpassing 82½ after going 80-82 last year, their first losing record since 2003.
"The Angels should be stronger on offense with the return of Kendrys Morales and the acquisition of Vernon Wells. The pitching will benefit from having Dan Haren on board for a full season to team with potential Cy Young Award candidate Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana to form a solid 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation," Iskoe said.
The skills of Angels manager Mike Scioscia, Iskoe said, will prove last year "a fluke rather than the start of a downward trend toward mediocrity."
But are the Dodgers, also 80-82 last year, mired in mediocrity and stuck behind the Giants in the NL West?
Cokin (Jimfeist.com) is betting the Dodgers over 83½ wins. He likes the managerial change from Joe Torre to Don Mattingly and a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, and he expects bounce-back seasons from outfielder Matt Kemp and closer Jonathan Broxton.
"Torre did a miserable job last year. He was basically falling asleep in the dugout," Cokin said. "The Dodgers are really undervalued."
Cokin labeled Houston (71), Kansas City (68) and Pittsburgh (67) as "awful" teams likely to go under their win totals.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
