Cardinals keep defying odds

It was highly unlikely the St. Louis Cardinals would get this far. But behind Albert Pujols’ power and Chris Carpenter’s clutch pitching, they are beating long odds.

On Sept. 8, the Cardinals were posted at 200-1 odds to win the World Series, according to Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay. At the time, St. Louis trailed Milwaukee by 8½ games in the National League Central and sat 6½ behind Atlanta in the wild-card race.

The Cardinals overcame the Braves, stunned the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the postseason and upset the Brewers to reach the World Series.

"Most of the books have liability on the Cardinals," said Kornegay, noting that although a small number of tickets were written on St. Louis at 200-1 and similar odds, the potential payout could be big.

The Cardinals are underdogs again. The Texas Rangers go into the World Series as minus-155 favorites, and Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and local sports radio personality, said the Rangers definitely deserve the favorite’s role.

But the pitching matchup in today’s opener favors Carpenter and the host Cardinals at minus-120. Reports have surfaced concerning Carpenter and a sore right elbow, but St. Louis manager Tony La Russa apparently still plans to start his ace in Game 1.

Carpenter is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three postseason starts. Texas lefty C.J. Wilson has been beat up in the postseason (0-2, 8.04).

"Wilson has not inspired confidence so far," Cokin said. "But I want to see if a bunch of money comes in on Texas, and I think it might. I don’t think La Russa will send Carpenter out there if his elbow is sore. If he’s still starting, he’s OK, and my guess is this is just chatter.

"I don’t like series bets, because it kind of dictates what I do from game to game, and I don’t like being boxed in a corner. Texas is the better team. This is the Rangers’ second straight World Series, and they are going to get better next year.

"I’ll tell you right now I think (Milwaukee free-agent first baseman) Prince Fielder will be in Texas next year."

For underdog bettors, a trend is on St. Louis’ side. Teams with home-field advantage in the World Series are 20-5 since 1985.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.