Bubba Watson worth a play at long odds to win 3rd Masters
“Cinderella story, out of nowhere, former greenskeeper, now, about to become the Masters champion. It looks like a mirac — It’s in the hole! It’s in the hole!” — Carl Spackler (Bill Murray) in the classic golf comedy “Caddyshack”
Danny Willett might as well have been Danny Noonan when he came out of nowhere to win the 2016 Masters following Jordan Spieth’s major meltdown.
Spieth appeared poised to win his second straight Masters before he blew a five-stroke lead on the back nine of the final round, putting two balls into Rae’s Creek en route to a quadruple-bogey 7 on the 12th hole at Augusta National.
Spieth’s stunning collapse paved the way for Willett, an unknown Englishman who opened as a 150-1 long shot and closed at 50-1 odds before the tournament.
Handicapper Brian Blessing (Sportsbookradio.com) said he bet Willett at 40-1 odds following the first two rounds of last year’s Masters and suggests a similar strategy at this year’s first major, which starts Thursday in Augusta, Georgia.
“You go price hunting,” Blessing said. “Unless you’re all in on Rory McIlroy or whoever, to me the way you approach (betting the Masters) is you pick a longer-priced play heading into the event.
“But the bottom line is the Masters systematically thins the herd to where the contender list is really down to eight or 10 guys on Friday night. Of those eight to 10 guys, you’ll find a nice price.”
Blessing’s longer-priced play entering the tournament is two-time Masters champion Bubba Watson, whom he bet at 35-1 odds to win his third green jacket. Watson’s future odds were at 40-1 on Wednesday at the Westgate.
“For me, the price is just too good to pass up,” Blessing said. “His play has been so-so, but the course is just set up for him. I thought for the next 10 years he’d be at 10-1 or 15-1, and now he’s 35-1.
“The Masters has a history of repeat champions. He’s already won two, so you know the course suits his eye.”
Dustin Johnson was the 11-2 favorite to win his first green jacket before falling and injuring his back Wednesday. He still hopes to play, according to his manager, but now he, Spieth and Rory McIlroy are co-favorites at 7-1.
Johnson and Spieth are Nos. 1 and 2 in money wagered and tickets written at the Westgate sports book, with McIlroy third in money and Phil Mickelson (20-1) third in tickets.
“Dustin Johnson is playing the best, as far as current form goes. If you’re a course form believer, Spieth is doing the best,” Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said.
While Spieth is the second choice, Sherman actually has him slotted a spot behind McIlroy in his power ratings. In player matchups, McIlroy is a minus-130 favorite over Spieth.
“For the last year and a half, (Spieth) just can’t live up to what he did two years ago when he almost won all four majors,” Sherman said. “McIlroy’s right there. He just hasn’t put four rounds together.”
The Westgate will offer in-progress wagering during Sunday’s final round. Could three-time Masters champion Mickelson be in the hunt at age 46?
“You can make a case for like 20 guys,” Sherman said. “If you’re looking for Phil, you’d be better served supporting him in matchups just to beat one guy rather than beating all these guys.”
For sleepers, Sherman singled out debutant Tyrrell Hatton at 50-1 for his current form and veteran Bill Haas at 80-1 for his experience.
In addition to Watson, Blessing said he’ll have action on sleepers Louis Oosthuizen (40-1), Matthew Fitzpatrick (60-1) and Soren Kjeldsen (150-1). Oosthuizen lost the 2012 Masters in a playoff to Watson.
“You have to give extra credence to guys that generally have played Augusta well in the past,” Blessing said. “That’s why as great as Dustin Johnson or Jon Rahm (20-1) are playing right now, it’s Rahm’s first kick at it and it remains to be seen if Johnson can win there.”
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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
